Amazon’s June-quarter profit improvement leaves shareholders with a question before November: how much reflects business performance, and how much reflects accounting gains?[2]
The November 1, 2026–April 22, 2027 seasonal window gives that assessment a timely focus. All six selected midterm-year windows ended higher, although broader histories include losses. How much confidence should investors place in that favorable timing?[3]
Growth and profit quality
July 2026’s Q2 release reported sales up 20% and AWS up 37%. Higher equipment purchases reflecting AI investment primarily drove the trailing-year $7.6 billion free-cash-flow outflow.[1]
Q2 net income included $53.4 billion in non-operating pretax income, primarily from Anthropic investments.[1]
The July 31 filing also qualifies the operating-income improvement charted below. Approximately $640 million of tariff refunds lowered June-quarter costs, mainly in North America; a $551 million unrealized energy-contract gain benefited technology and infrastructure expenses, mainly in AWS.[2]
Amazon’s reported quarterly operating income
Second quarters ended June 30; company-reported figures
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 19.2 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 27.5 | Q2 2026 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record covers six midterm-election start years spanning 2002–2022, not consecutive years. Its median full-window long result was 16.62%. That describes completed historical windows, not an expected return from today.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +29.19% | +41.62% | -8.08% |
| 2006 | +19.20% | +20.66% | -3.35% |
| 2010 | +14.05% | +17.85% | -3.57% |
| 2014 | +27.50% | +29.07% | -6.70% |
| 2018 | +13.32% | +13.38% | -21.53% |
| 2022 | +9.73% | +17.78% | -15.87% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain could include substantial weakness
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. November 1, 2018–April 22, 2019 illustrates why endings can mislead: AMZN finished up 13.32% but reached 21.53% below its starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough drawdown, and do not establish a future loss limit.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +29.19% | +41.62% | -8.08% |
| 2006 | +19.20% | +20.66% | -3.35% |
| 2010 | +14.05% | +17.85% | -3.57% |
| 2014 | +27.50% | +29.07% | -6.70% |
| 2018 | +13.32% | +13.38% | -21.53% |
| 2022 | +9.73% | +17.78% | -15.87% |
Broader histories include losses
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond the selected midterms. Windows starting in 2016–2025 were 80.0% profitable, versus 70.0% for 2006–2025: less consistent further back. Those histories reuse two and five selected midterm observations, respectively, limiting independent confirmation. Six selected outcomes cannot establish an election-driven advantage.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 16.62% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 11.73% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 13.42% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before the November entry
July’s Q3 guidance: sales $197.0–$202.0 billion, up 9%–12%; operating income $22.5–$26.5 billion versus $17.4 billion in Q3 2025. Prime Day timing and currency restrain sales growth; energy-contract remeasurements excluded.[1]
Recorded prices end October 2, 2026, before November’s future entry. The price chart below overlays an average seasonal path using this article’s six selected years for the next 60 weekdays, October 5–December 25, 2026. That horizon is separate from the full seasonal window and illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target. Before November, ask how convincing the timing remains across broader histories, and inspect this same window’s range of outcomes in TradeWave.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Amazon.com Announces Second Quarter Results · 2026-07-30
- AMAZON.COM, INC. FORM 10-Q For the Quarterly Period Ended June 30, 2026 · 2026-07-31
- TradeWave AMZN seasonal evidence · 2026-10-05