NVIDIA’s September 28 buyback expansion raises a timing question for shareholders weighing its commitment to return capital: how much encouragement does the stock’s late-October seasonal record offer?[3][4]
The October 29–November 7, 2026 window approaches with gains in all six selected midterm-year windows from 2002–2022. That favorable finding deserves attention before the window opens, although the two broader comparison histories include losses.[4]
Revenue, margins and repurchases
NVIDIA’s August 26 filing reported fiscal 2027 second-quarter revenue of $96,221 million versus $46,743 million in the comparable 2025 quarter. Both were 13-week quarters, providing a like-for-like reporting-period benchmark.[2]
For the quarter ended July 26, 2026, revenue grew 18% sequentially and 106% annually. Data Center grew 117% annually; Edge Computing, 27%. Management cited broadening AI infrastructure demand.[1]
Third-quarter guidance is $108.0 billion, ±2%, assuming no China Data Center compute revenue. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are forecast at 74.0%, ±50 basis points, versus 75.0% for both in the second quarter.[1]
Data Center dominated NVIDIA’s reported second-quarter revenue
Fiscal 2027 second quarter ended July 26, 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 89 | Q2 FY2027 | reported |
| Edge Computing | 7.2 | Q2 FY2027 | reported |
What the winning windows show
TradeWave’s seasonal record puts the perfect win count in perspective: the 12.02% average full-window long result exceeds the 5.64% median, with 2002’s 36.36% gain standing out. The average therefore gives a stronger impression than the middle result. Six selected observations offer limited confidence about another midterm year.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +36.36% | +54.77% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +4.06% | +6.40% | -3.82% |
| 2010 | +5.31% | +6.24% | -0.65% |
| 2014 | +5.24% | +10.00% | -1.90% |
| 2018 | +15.18% | +19.60% | -0.00% |
| 2022 | +5.96% | +6.78% | -4.01% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can include a fall
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 29–November 7, 2022 is useful because its 5.96% ending gain coexisted with a move 4.01% below the starting price. A shareholder could face a meaningful loss during a window that ultimately gained. The highs and lows establish neither their order nor a peak-to-trough loss; they are not stops or forecasts.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +36.36% | +54.77% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +4.06% | +6.40% | -3.82% |
| 2010 | +5.31% | +6.24% | -0.65% |
| 2014 | +5.24% | +10.00% | -1.90% |
| 2018 | +15.18% | +19.60% | -0.00% |
| 2022 | +5.96% | +6.78% | -4.01% |
Two broader histories
To check the dependence on selecting midterm years, TradeWave compares consecutive windows in 2016–2025 and 2006–2025: 90.0% and 85.0% gained. Both remain favorable but include losses, tempering confidence in the small selected sample. They reuse two and five selected midterm observations, respectively; the shorter history sits within the longer one, limiting independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.64% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 5.03% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 5.3% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before the window opens
On September 28, NVIDIA added $150 billion to its repurchase authorization, leaving $235 billion authorized. Management expects execution through fiscal 2028; the announcement does not establish completed purchases. How much of that authorization becomes actual repurchases remains a business question.[3]
The price illustration below superimposes an average seasonal path from this article’s six selected midterm years on the recorded price chart. It covers the next 60 weekdays, October 5–December 25, 2026, a separate horizon from the full seasonal window. Recorded prices end October 2, 2026, before entry; the future span illustrates historical shape, not earnings predictions or price targets. Before October 29, inspect this same window across TradeWave’s histories and compare the range of outcomes behind the favorable finishes.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.