Investors weighing QQQ’s technology exposure face a timing question: how dependable is its approaching favorable season? Invesco’s August 5 outlook projected more than $800 billion in 2026 AI infrastructure spending from company guidance, a forecast rather than realized spending.[2][3]
Ahead of October 25, TradeWave’s six selected midterm windows from 2002–2022 all finished higher. That supports examining the October 25, 2026–April 26, 2027 period, although losses in broader histories temper confidence.[3]
August’s technology lead
QQQ shares represent the Invesco QQQ exchange-traded fund, which tracks the Nasdaq-100. Investors cannot buy the index directly.[2]
Invesco’s September 17 report covered August through August 31: QQQ gained 4.22% at net asset value versus the S&P 500’s 2.72%. Technology holdings and overweight primarily drove relative gains; the energy underweight detracted most. Despite $12.844 billion in net inflows, daily share trading averaged 33.20 million versus July’s 40.68 million. Traded dollar value also fell. NAV performance does not establish an investor’s trading return or conditions at October’s entry.[1]
QQQ average daily share trading declined in August
Reported monthly averages from Invesco
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 40.68 | July 2026 | reported |
| August 2026 | 33.2 | August 2026 | reported |
A favorable midterm record
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 11.61%, before trading costs. Six observations offer historical perspective, but cannot establish a dependable return for this year.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.25% | +16.56% | -5.59% |
| 2006 | +9.91% | +10.15% | -1.93% |
| 2010 | +13.74% | +14.15% | -2.00% |
| 2014 | +12.40% | +13.32% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +11.97% | +12.31% | -15.89% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +13.61% | -8.84% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a winning finish can conceal
The yearly range chart shows the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 25, 2018–April 26, 2019 illustrates the distinction: it finished up 11.97% but traded 15.89% below the starting price. These highs and lows reveal exposure within the window, not their sequence, peak-to-trough drawdown or a forecast.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.25% | +16.56% | -5.59% |
| 2006 | +9.91% | +10.15% | -1.93% |
| 2010 | +13.74% | +14.15% | -2.00% |
| 2014 | +12.40% | +13.32% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +11.97% | +12.31% | -15.89% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +13.61% | -8.84% |
Broader histories include losses
Checking across all years tests how widely the favorable reading holds: the 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 windows each had 80.0% success and a 10.47% median. The first reuses 2018 and 2022; the second reuses every selected midterm except 2002. The shorter history also sits inside the longer, limiting independent confirmation. Six midterms cannot establish an election effect.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 11.61% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.47% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.47% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before the window opens
Before October 25, inspect this same window’s outcomes in TradeWave. Recorded prices end October 2, not at entry. The following illustration overlays an average seasonal path from the same six selected years, scaled to the price chart, for the next 60 weekdays, October 5–December 25. That shorter horizon illustrates historical shape; its future dates are neither recorded prices nor a price target.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Market outlook Invesco QQQ monthly review · 2026-09-17
- Market outlook QQQ quarterly outlook report · 2026-08-05
- TradeWave QQQ seasonal evidence · 2026-10-05