For SPY investors, subdued hiring alongside rising spending makes the economic outlook harder to read. What should they watch before the ETF’s favorable autumn window?[1][2][5]
September spending figures arrive October 29, when the October 29–December 2 seasonal window begins. Seven selected midterm years all produced gains, though broader histories include losses.[2][5]
Hiring, spending and rates
BLS’s October 2 report put September payroll growth at 29,000 versus a prior 12-month monthly average of 45,000; unemployment was 4.2%. July–August gains were revised down by 60,000.[1]
BEA’s September 30 release showed August spending up 0.9%, or 0.6% after inflation. Annual PCE inflation was 3.4%, excluding food and energy 3.0%, above the Fed’s 2% goal.[2][4]
BEA’s September 30 GDP estimate showed second-quarter annualized growth of 2.2%, versus a revised 2.5% in the first quarter. Its advance third-quarter estimate is scheduled for October 29.[3]
Reported U.S. GDP growth across the first two quarters of 2026
Real GDP, annualized quarterly growth
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 2.5 | Q1 2026 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 2.2 | Q2 2026 | reported |
The selected midterm record
TradeWave’s study of SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, covers October 29–December 2 across seven selected midterm years, 1998–2022. The median full-window gain was 5.36%. That favorable seasonal record gives investors a specific period to examine, but seven observations leave limited confidence. These results cover the complete historical windows, not returns available from today.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +7.20% | +9.43% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +6.28% | +8.45% | -1.26% |
| 2006 | +2.53% | +2.71% | -1.59% |
| 2010 | +3.43% | +3.76% | -0.76% |
| 2014 | +4.53% | +4.93% | -0.36% |
| 2018 | +5.85% | +6.58% | -0.30% |
| 2022 | +5.36% | +6.16% | -4.51% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Gains could include setbacks
The yearly range chart shows the same seasonal period in each year, not the whole calendar year. October 29–December 2, 2022 is useful because its 5.36% ending gain accompanied a move 4.51% below the starting price. A favorable finish therefore says little about how comfortable holding through the period felt. The highs and lows establish neither their order nor a peak-to-trough loss, stop level or forecast.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +7.20% | +9.43% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +6.28% | +8.45% | -1.26% |
| 2006 | +2.53% | +2.71% | -1.59% |
| 2010 | +3.43% | +3.76% | -0.76% |
| 2014 | +4.53% | +4.93% | -0.36% |
| 2018 | +5.85% | +6.58% | -0.30% |
| 2022 | +5.36% | +6.16% | -4.51% |
Broader histories include losses
Checking the same window across all years makes the favorable reading less convincing further back: gains occurred in 80.0% during 2016–2025 versus 70.0% during 2006–2025. The shorter comparison reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses selected midterms from 2006–2022 and includes the shorter comparison. These overlapping histories temper confidence in seven midterm observations; agreement is neither independent confirmation nor proof of an election effect.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.36% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 3.56% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 2.83% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect next
On October 29, watch whether spending strength persists. Those figures will update the economic picture as the seasonal window opens; they cannot validate a seasonal return.[2][5]
Recorded prices end October 2, 2026, before the future entry. The illustration below uses this article’s seven selected midterm years for TradeWave’s normalized seasonal trend, scaled onto the price chart over the next 60 weekdays, October 5–December 25. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, a forecast or a target. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect the range of outcomes.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M09 Results · 2026-10-02
- Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 · 2026-09-30
- GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025 · 2026-09-30
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement · 2026-09-16
- TradeWave SPY seasonal evidence · 2026-10-05