Investors in the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund face a timely question: how much confidence should they place in seasonal strength after September’s rate increase? JPMorgan’s October 13 earnings release arrives before XLF’s proposed entry.[5][3][4]
The October 20, 2026–July 2, 2027 window finished higher in all six selected midterm-election years spanning 2002–2022. That favorable record deserves attention, although broader histories include losing windows.[5]
Profits before the rate increase
JPMorgan’s July 14 second-quarter release reported $21.2 billion in profit, or $16.9 billion excluding Visa and other equity investment gains. Management credited elevated market activity, execution, prior investment and capital deployment. Markets revenue rose 35% from a year earlier, but management warned about inflation, geopolitical tensions, fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.[1]
Bank of America’s July 14 release reported second-quarter profit of $9.1 billion versus $7.2 billion a year earlier. Revenue growth reflected net interest income, trading, asset management and investment banking fees. Markets activity, higher loan and deposit balances, and fixed-rate asset repricing supported net interest income; lower rates partly offset those drivers.[2]
The backdrop subsequently changed: on September 16, the Fed raised its target range by one-quarter percentage point to 3.75%–4%, citing elevated inflation.[3]
Bank of America reported higher second-quarter net income
Reported net income in comparable second quarters
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2Q25 | 7.2 | 2Q25 | reported |
| 2Q26 | 9.1 | 2Q26 | reported |
Six selected midterm windows
TradeWave’s seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 9.34%. These six selected observations support investigating the timing, but cannot establish a dependable election effect.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.74% | +16.09% | -15.69% |
| 2006 | +5.69% | +9.89% | -1.96% |
| 2010 | +7.07% | +18.15% | -1.71% |
| 2014 | +11.21% | +13.96% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +8.51% | +9.25% | -14.99% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +19.46% | -1.69% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can conceal discomfort
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not the whole calendar year. October 20, 2018–July 2, 2019 illustrates the distinction: XLF finished up 8.51% but reached 14.99% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough loss.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.74% | +16.09% | -15.69% |
| 2006 | +5.69% | +9.89% | -1.96% |
| 2010 | +7.07% | +18.15% | -1.71% |
| 2014 | +11.21% | +13.96% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +8.51% | +9.25% | -14.99% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +19.46% | -1.69% |
Broader history lowers confidence
Checking across all years tests how widely the favorable reading holds: success was 80.0% for windows starting in 2016–2025, versus 70.0% for 2006–2025. The longer history makes uninterrupted gains less convincing. Neither independently confirms the small midterm sample: the shorter history reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected year except 2002. The shorter history also sits entirely within the longer.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 9.34% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 9.34% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 7.79% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Earnings first, then entry
October 13 brings the next earnings evidence. Before October 20, inspect this same window’s outcomes across TradeWave histories.[4][5]
Below, recorded prices end October 2, 2026, not at the future entry. The overlay uses this article’s six selected midterm years, rescaling their average seasonal path for comparison with prices. October 5–December 25 illustrates the next 60 weekdays, separate from the full window. It depicts historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings predictions or a price target.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- JPMORGANCHASE REPORTS SECOND-QUARTER 2026 NET INCOME OF $21.2 BILLION ($7.70 PER SHARE), NET INCOME EXCLUDING SIGNIFICANT ITEMS OF $16.9 BILLION ($6.14 PER SHARE) · 2026-07-14
- Bank of America Reports 2Q26 Net Income of $9.1 Billion; EPS of $1.21, Up 34% YoY · 2026-07-14
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement · 2026-09-16
- JPMorganChase to Host Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings Call · 2026-09-17
- TradeWave XLF seasonal evidence · 2026-10-05