Can Amphenol meet its third-quarter adjusted earnings guidance of $0.70–$0.71 per diluted share after the split as a historically favorable stretch for its shares approaches?[2][4]
Ahead of the October 20, 2026–April 30, 2027 window, the same seasonal period gained in all eight selected midterm-election years from 1994–2022, although consecutive-year histories include losses. That makes the approaching window worth examining, while keeping the shares’ historical timing separate from the company’s ability to deliver its outlook.[4][2]
The outlook after the split
July 29’s release attributed 55% second-quarter sales growth to organic gains, especially IT datacom, and acquisitions. Adjusted operating margin of 29.8% included $80 million in net tariff recoveries. Better-than-expected CommScope performance lifted 2026 expectations to $4.6 billion sales and $0.30 pre-split adjusted diluted EPS accretion.[1]
Third-quarter guidance assumed current market conditions and constant exchange rates: sales of $9.3 billion–$9.4 billion, up 50%–52% year-over-year, and pre-split adjusted diluted EPS of $1.40–$1.42, excluding additional tariff recoveries.[1]
The August 6 notice restated third-quarter adjusted diluted EPS guidance at $0.70–$0.71 after the split. That is the benchmark for assessing the quarter’s eventual adjusted earnings on the new share basis.[2]
Amphenol’s second-quarter sales and orders
Reported second quarter of 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 8.8 | Q2 2026 | reported |
| Orders | 10.7 | Q2 2026 | reported |
Eight favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window gain at 15.2%. The consistency is encouraging, but eight selected observations provide limited confidence about the next outcome. These are complete October-to-April returns, not returns available from today, and the broader histories below show that the favorable result depends partly on which years are examined.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | +17.01% | +26.60% | -14.83% |
| 1998 | +14.33% | +33.78% | -2.68% |
| 2002 | +18.10% | +23.14% | -6.81% |
| 2006 | +4.13% | +8.37% | -9.28% |
| 2010 | +15.14% | +21.48% | -0.84% |
| 2014 | +15.25% | +26.01% | -3.00% |
| 2018 | +20.98% | +28.21% | -9.15% |
| 2022 | +11.16% | +19.84% | -0.22% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Winning periods still endured losses
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. October 20, 2018–April 30, 2019 is useful because its 20.98% ending gain coexisted with a move 9.15% below the starting price. Ending results can conceal discomfort along the way. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown, stop level or forecast.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | +17.01% | +26.60% | -14.83% |
| 1998 | +14.33% | +33.78% | -2.68% |
| 2002 | +18.10% | +23.14% | -6.81% |
| 2006 | +4.13% | +8.37% | -9.28% |
| 2010 | +15.14% | +21.48% | -0.84% |
| 2014 | +15.25% | +26.01% | -3.00% |
| 2018 | +20.98% | +28.21% | -9.15% |
| 2022 | +11.16% | +19.84% | -0.22% |
Broader histories include losses
Checking consecutive years tests whether the favorable reading extends across all years: success was 70.0% for 2016–2025 versus 85.0% for 2006–2025. Timing looks less consistent in the recent history. These samples reuse two and five selected midterm observations, respectively, and the longer contains the shorter. Agreement therefore offers limited independent confirmation and establishes no election-driven cause.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 8 selected midterm-election years (1994–2022) | 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 15.2% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 13.4% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 15.2% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before October 20
The September 4 filing confirmed the September 2 split took effect and scheduled the $0.125 post-split dividend for October 14.[3]
Recorded prices end October 5, 2026, before entry conditions are known. The illustration below overlays a rescaled average seasonal path from this article’s eight selected midterm years for the next 60 weekdays, October 6–December 28. That separate horizon ends before the full seasonal window; it illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target. Before October 20, inspect this same window’s outcomes across histories in TradeWave to judge how much confidence its favorable record deserves.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
8 selected midterm-election years (1994–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Amphenol Reports Record Second Quarter 2026 Results · 2026-07-29
- Amphenol Announces Two-for-One Stock Split and Third Quarter 2026 Dividend · 2026-08-06
- Form 8-K - Current report · 2026-09-04
- TradeWave APH seasonal evidence · 2026-10-06