Holders of Copart common stock face an unfinished ACV acquisition as the October 7 tender deadline approaches. How much comfort should CPRT’s seasonal record offer while completion remains uncertain?[1][3]
The October 28–December 12, 2026 window is still ahead. All seven selected midterm-election windows from 1998–2022 ended higher, although consecutive-year histories include losses.[3]
Deal conditions and operating pressures
Copart’s October 1 release extended its $10.50-per-share cash tender from September 30 to October 7 at 5 p.m. Eastern. At September 30, 11:59 p.m. Eastern, 47.78% of ACV shares had been tendered, below the majority condition. Copart withdrew and refiled its antitrust notification for more review time; the stated waiting period expires October 13 at 11:59 p.m. Eastern unless terminated earlier. Neither deadline guarantees completion.[1]
September 11’s fiscal Q4 2026 discussion cited fewer collision claims and one customer loss; international volume growth and dealer gains partly offset domestic weakness. Product and service investment costs primarily drove gross-profit declines. Management forecast ACV’s year-end completion, with earnings accretion in the first full year after closing.[2]
Copart’s international unit growth contrasted with domestic declines
Fiscal fourth quarter 2026; reported change in units sold from a year earlier
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global | -2.9 | Fiscal Q4 2026 | reported |
| Domestic | -5.7 | Fiscal Q4 2026 | reported |
| International | 10 | Fiscal Q4 2026 | reported |
What the selected midterms show
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window gain at 5.83%. Seven observations support a favorable reading, but cannot establish an election effect or a reliable return for 2026.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +0.25% | +6.37% | -7.72% |
| 2002 | +7.65% | +21.11% | -4.04% |
| 2006 | +5.83% | +6.83% | -1.08% |
| 2010 | +3.69% | +7.93% | -1.73% |
| 2014 | +9.95% | +14.02% | -1.11% |
| 2018 | +4.72% | +10.95% | -0.40% |
| 2022 | +10.66% | +16.52% | -4.85% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A positive finish could conceal discomfort
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not the whole calendar year. October 28–December 12, 1998 is useful because its 0.25% ending gain concealed a move 7.72% below the starting price. The highs and lows show the range endured, not their order, a peak-to-trough drawdown or a forecast.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +0.25% | +6.37% | -7.72% |
| 2002 | +7.65% | +21.11% | -4.04% |
| 2006 | +5.83% | +6.83% | -1.08% |
| 2010 | +3.69% | +7.93% | -1.73% |
| 2014 | +9.95% | +14.02% | -1.11% |
| 2018 | +4.72% | +10.95% | -0.40% |
| 2022 | +10.66% | +16.52% | -4.85% |
Does the pattern extend beyond midterms?
Checking across all years broadens the perspective: median returns were 7.6% in 2016–2025 and 6.3% in 2006–2025, with losses in both. The favorable reading survives, but the perfect record does not. These histories reuse two and five selected midterm observations, respectively, and overlap each other, limiting independent confirmation of the small primary sample.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.83% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 7.6% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 6.3% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before October 28
Today’s deal conditions do not establish conditions at entry or validate a seasonal return. The next checkpoint is the October 7 tender deadline.[1][3]
The price chart overlays these seven selected midterm years’ average seasonal shape on recorded prices ending October 5, 2026. Only the seasonal illustration extends through October 6–December 28, covering the next 60 weekdays, separately from the full window. It is neither a forecast nor a price target. In TradeWave, inspect this same window’s outcomes and ranges across histories.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Copart Announces Extension of Tender Offer to Acquire ACV · 2026-10-01
- Copart – Q4 Earnings Call Transcript · 2026-09-11
- TradeWave CPRT seasonal evidence · 2026-10-06