For investors in IBM common stock (NYSE: IBM), can delayed deals close after July’s reported shortfall as a historically favorable period approaches?[1][4]
The October 24, 2026–February 14, 2027 window gained in all 15 selected midterm years, versus 85.0% across 2006–2025. How much confidence should that seasonal record inspire?[4]
July’s business backdrop
IBM’s July 22 release reported Q2 revenue of $17.2 billion versus $16.977 billion a year earlier. Its 2026 forecasts were 4%–5% constant-currency revenue growth and about $1 billion more free cash flow year over year.[2]
Krishna’s July 14 letter cited the strong z17 launch comparison, weaker Z and Transaction Processing, spending diverted toward scarce hardware before expected price increases, and cybersecurity distractions. IBM failed to adapt quickly; delayed large deals drove most of the shortfall. Red Hat and Distributed Infrastructure showed strength, with roughly $500 million of backlog in the latter. Management still described the broader z17 program as ahead of z16.[1]
IBM’s second-quarter businesses moved in different directions
Reported year-over-year revenue changes, second quarter 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Hat | +11% | Q2 2026 year over year | reported |
| Transaction Processing | -8% | Q2 2026 year over year | reported |
| IBM Z | -42% | Q2 2026 year over year | reported |
| Distributed Infrastructure | +37% | Q2 2026 year over year | reported |
Fifteen selected midterm windows
TradeWave’s seasonal record covers 15 selected midterm-election years from 1966 through 2022. The 15.96% median long result describes complete windows before costs, not an expected gain from today. This limited sample does not establish an election-driven effect.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | +32.76% | +33.00% | +0.00% |
| 1970 | +18.84% | +19.50% | -0.26% |
| 1974 | +23.31% | +23.80% | -12.57% |
| 1978 | +13.60% | +16.27% | -5.88% |
| 1982 | +26.14% | +27.22% | -1.09% |
| 1986 | +15.96% | +16.16% | -3.79% |
| 1990 | +26.89% | +28.07% | -3.57% |
| 1994 | +4.30% | +7.21% | -6.53% |
| 1998 | +20.92% | +39.48% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +7.83% | +24.31% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +9.11% | +10.64% | -1.85% |
| 2010 | +17.70% | +19.89% | -0.94% |
| 2014 | +0.69% | +2.48% | -7.12% |
| 2018 | +9.92% | +11.08% | -15.66% |
| 2022 | +5.00% | +16.84% | -1.05% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain could involve substantial losses
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year. October 24, 2018–February 14, 2019 illustrates why endings can mislead: a 9.92% gain accompanied a move 15.66% below the starting price. The highs and lows establish neither their order nor a peak-to-trough loss or future limit.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | +32.76% | +33.00% | +0.00% |
| 1970 | +18.84% | +19.50% | -0.26% |
| 1974 | +23.31% | +23.80% | -12.57% |
| 1978 | +13.60% | +16.27% | -5.88% |
| 1982 | +26.14% | +27.22% | -1.09% |
| 1986 | +15.96% | +16.16% | -3.79% |
| 1990 | +26.89% | +28.07% | -3.57% |
| 1994 | +4.30% | +7.21% | -6.53% |
| 1998 | +20.92% | +39.48% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +7.83% | +24.31% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +9.11% | +10.64% | -1.85% |
| 2010 | +17.70% | +19.89% | -0.94% |
| 2014 | +0.69% | +2.48% | -7.12% |
| 2018 | +9.92% | +11.08% | -15.66% |
| 2022 | +5.00% | +16.84% | -1.05% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests how much the selected history matters: median results were 9.96% for 2016–2025 versus 7.71% for 2006–2025. The longer view is less compelling. Each comparison reuses selected midterm observations; the shorter sample also sits entirely within the longer, limiting independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 15 selected midterm-election years (1966–2022) | 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 15.96% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 9.96% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 7.71% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect before October 24
October 24 is the next calendar checkpoint; October 5 observations cannot establish entry conditions. Compare this window’s histories and ranges in TradeWave. Below, the same 15 selected years supply an average seasonal path over the next 60 weekdays, October 6–December 28, 2026, separate from the full window. Recorded prices end October 5. The rescaled overlay illustrates historical shape, not a forecast or price target.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
15 selected midterm-election years (1966–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Arvind Krishna's Letter to IBM Investors · 2026-07-14
- IBM RELEASES SECOND-QUARTER RESULTS · 2026-07-22
- IBM Introduces Self-Hosted Deployment for IBM Bob to Help Enterprises Advance AI Sovereignty and Governance · 2026-10-01
- TradeWave IBM seasonal evidence · 2026-10-06