Can Microsoft turn cloud and AI demand into lasting profit growth while paying for its expansion? July’s earnings call reported $41 billion of quarterly capital expenditure, including higher component prices.[2]
The approaching October 11–20, 2026 window adds a timing question: all nine selected midterm windows gained, although broader histories were weaker. How much confidence does that deserve? October 5’s market observation cannot establish conditions at entry.[4]
Growth and its costs
July 29 results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 showed Microsoft Cloud revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27%. GAAP EPS rose 32% to $4.81 from $3.65; non-GAAP EPS rose 23% to $4.74 from $3.86, excluding OpenAI investment effects. More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%.[1]
Management credited fiscal-year growth to Azure and its own AI applications and services. Quarterly company gross margin fell to 67% as Azure’s sales share, AI infrastructure investment and usage increased; Azure and Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud efficiencies partly offset that pressure.[2]
A $3.2 billion Anthropic gain and lower-than-expected retirement-program expenses benefited EPS versus April guidance, partly offset by severance and Xbox impairments. Management said revenue, operating income and EPS exceeded expectations even after adjusting for those items.[2]
Microsoft’s reported quarterly revenue by segment
Quarter ended June 30, 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity and Business Processes | 37.8 | Quarter ended 2026-06-30 | reported |
| Intelligent Cloud | 39.3 | Quarter ended 2026-06-30 | reported |
| More Personal Computing | 12.9 | Quarter ended 2026-06-30 | reported |
The selected midterm record
TradeWave’s seasonal record covers nine selected midterm-election years from 1990–2022, not consecutive years. The median full-window gain was 3.51%. That favorable history concerns share-price timing; it does not establish what today’s business developments will deliver.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | +10.35% | +11.64% | -7.76% |
| 1994 | +6.83% | +7.27% | -1.46% |
| 1998 | +0.50% | +6.77% | -4.01% |
| 2002 | +7.45% | +8.86% | -2.11% |
| 2006 | +3.23% | +4.21% | +0.00% |
| 2010 | +2.93% | +5.53% | -0.65% |
| 2014 | +0.98% | +1.67% | -3.55% |
| 2018 | +3.51% | +5.57% | +0.00% |
| 2022 | +4.76% | +8.22% | -2.79% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can include losses
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. October 11–20, 2022 is useful because its 4.76% ending gain coexisted with a move 2.79% below the starting price. Highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough drawdown.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | +10.35% | +11.64% | -7.76% |
| 1994 | +6.83% | +7.27% | -1.46% |
| 1998 | +0.50% | +6.77% | -4.01% |
| 2002 | +7.45% | +8.86% | -2.11% |
| 2006 | +3.23% | +4.21% | +0.00% |
| 2010 | +2.93% | +5.53% | -0.65% |
| 2014 | +0.98% | +1.67% | -3.55% |
| 2018 | +3.51% | +5.57% | +0.00% |
| 2022 | +4.76% | +8.22% | -2.79% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests how broadly the finding holds: median gains were 0.56% in 2016–2025 and 1.31% in 2006–2025. Both were weaker than the small midterm sample. The first reuses 2018 and 2022; the second includes every selected midterm from 2006 onward and the entire shorter history. Agreement therefore offers limited independent confirmation, not evidence that elections caused gains.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 9 selected midterm-election years (1990–2022) | 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 3.51% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 0.56% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 1.31% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect next
Microsoft announced Ryan Roslansky’s departure October 1; he will advise through year-end and support the transition. No specific departure date was given.[3]
Below, recorded prices end October 5, 2026. The same nine selected years supply an average seasonal path, scaled alongside prices, for the next 60 weekdays, October 6–December 28. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not a price target or earnings prediction. As October 11 approaches, inspect this window’s outcomes and ranges across histories in TradeWave.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
9 selected midterm-election years (1990–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Microsoft Cloud and AI Strength Fuels Fourth Quarter Results · 2026-07-29
- Microsoft Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call · 2026-07-29
- Microsoft 365 and LinkedIn leadership update · 2026-10-01
- TradeWave MSFT seasonal evidence · 2026-10-06