Microsoft’s July results paired revenue growth with gross margin pressure. For investors in the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), an exchange-traded fund, the approaching autumn window raises a separate question: how much confidence does seasonal timing deserve?[3][4]
Ahead of October 25, 2026–May 3, 2027, all six selected midterm-election windows from 2002–2022 finished positive. That favorable finding merits attention, although broader histories include losses.[4]
Growth with qualifications
NVIDIA’s August 26 filing reported revenue of $96,221 million for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, versus $46,743 million for the quarter ended July 27, 2025. It cautioned that interim results do not necessarily indicate future results. The chart compares company revenue, not XLK performance.[1]
Apple’s July 30 release reported $109.4 billion revenue for the quarter ended June 27, up 16%. Tariff refunds benefited gross margin by approximately two percentage points and earnings per share by $0.11.[2]
Microsoft’s July 29 call reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $90 billion, up 18%, and attributed full-year growth to Azure and its own AI applications and services. Capital spending was $41 billion, including higher component pricing. Management said: “Company gross margin percentage was 67%, down year-over-year, driven by sales mix shift to Azure as well as continued investments in AI infrastructure and growing product usage, partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains, particularly in Azure and M365 Commercial cloud.” Operating margin nevertheless increased slightly year over year to 45%.[3]
NVIDIA’s reported quarterly revenue
Comparable fiscal second quarters; company reported values
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter ended July 27, 2025 | 46,743 | FY2026 Q2, ended 2025-07-27 | reported |
| Quarter ended July 26, 2026 | 96,221 | FY2027 Q2, ended 2026-07-26 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record shows a 10.9% median full-window gain. Six observations support examining these dates, but cannot establish that elections caused the gains.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.76% | +22.51% | -7.39% |
| 2006 | +9.21% | +9.30% | -1.87% |
| 2010 | +10.99% | +12.44% | -1.82% |
| 2014 | +10.82% | +11.88% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +14.33% | +15.58% | -16.78% |
| 2022 | +15.98% | +18.64% | -7.98% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a winning finish conceals
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not the whole calendar year. October 25, 2018–May 3, 2019 is useful because its 14.33% ending gain coexisted with a move 16.78% below the starting price. These highs and lows reveal losses hidden by the finish, without establishing their order or a peak-to-trough loss.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.76% | +22.51% | -7.39% |
| 2006 | +9.21% | +9.30% | -1.87% |
| 2010 | +10.99% | +12.44% | -1.82% |
| 2014 | +10.82% | +11.88% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +14.33% | +15.58% | -16.78% |
| 2022 | +15.98% | +18.64% | -7.98% |
Broader histories include losses
Checking across all years tempers confidence in the small midterm sample: both 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 had 80.0% profitable windows. The former reuses 2018 and 2022; the latter reuses every selected year except 2002. The broader histories also overlap each other, so their agreement offers limited independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 10.9% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 12.25% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.51% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before October 25
Recorded prices end October 5, 2026, so they cannot establish October 25 entry conditions. The price chart below overlays this article’s selected six midterm years’ normalized average seasonal path for the next 60 weekdays, October 6–December 28, 2026. That horizon is shorter than the full seasonal window and illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target. Ahead of entry, inspect this same window’s outcomes and ranges in TradeWave: how much variation sits behind the favorable finish?[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- NVIDIA CORPORATION FORM 10-Q · 2026-08-26
- Apple reports third quarter results · 2026-07-30
- Microsoft Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call · 2026-07-29
- TradeWave XLK seasonal evidence · 2026-10-06