Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) shareholders face a timing question before third-quarter earnings: how much comfort can past seasonal gains offer? Results are scheduled for November 4, 2026, after the NYSE close.[1][3]
The approaching October 13–November 4 window ended higher in all seven selected midterm years from 1998–2022, although broader histories were weaker. This year’s earnings release falls after the window’s final close, making the record relevant to positioning beforehand without predicting the results or the market’s response.[3][1]
Lithium scenarios
August 5’s release reported Q2 2026 sales of $1.7 billion versus $1.3 billion a year earlier, up 31%, citing Energy Storage and Specialties pricing plus Specialties volumes. Sales and cost/productivity gains lifted adjusted EBITDA. Full-year volume expectations included Talison CGP3’s delay after June 9’s fire, partly offset by Wodgina output.[2]
Conditional 2026 scenarios assume flat lithium prices through existing contracts. At approximately $10 versus $30/kg, projected adjusted EBITDA was $0.9–$1.0 versus $4.2–$4.4 billion; comparable GAAP guidance was unavailable.[2]
Albemarle’s reported second-quarter sales increased
Company net sales, rounded figures reported for each quarter
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 1.3 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7 | Q2 2026 | reported |
Seven selected midterms
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record shows a 10.58% median full-window long result. Seven observations provide an encouraging history, but limited grounds for expecting another gain. The median describes the complete seasonal period before trading costs, rather than a return available from today’s price.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +2.64% | +11.55% | -0.33% |
| 2002 | +10.50% | +11.58% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +15.88% | +18.03% | -2.56% |
| 2010 | +8.11% | +8.44% | -3.69% |
| 2014 | +10.61% | +11.40% | -3.40% |
| 2018 | +10.58% | +12.93% | -3.54% |
| 2022 | +11.32% | +12.45% | -7.47% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What positive endings conceal
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 13–November 4, 2022, illustrates why the ending result alone is insufficient: shares finished up 11.32% but also traded 7.47% below the starting price. The chart shows how far prices moved from that starting point, without establishing how long they stayed below it or the order of their highs and lows. Those ranges are not peak-to-trough losses or limits on future losses.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +2.64% | +11.55% | -0.33% |
| 2002 | +10.50% | +11.58% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +15.88% | +18.03% | -2.56% |
| 2010 | +8.11% | +8.44% | -3.69% |
| 2014 | +10.61% | +11.40% | -3.40% |
| 2018 | +10.58% | +12.93% | -3.54% |
| 2022 | +11.32% | +12.45% | -7.47% |
Across all years
Broader histories test whether the favorable reading survives across all years. Median results were 1.58% for 2016–2025 versus 4.36% for 2006–2025, weakening confidence particularly in recent history. The first reuses 2018 and 2022; the second reuses the study’s 2006–2022 midterms and contains the entire shorter history. These overlapping samples offer perspective, not independent confirmation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 10.58% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 1.58% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 4.36% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
From entry to earnings
The November 5 results call, scheduled for 8 a.m. EST, provides the next discussion after the release.[1]
Recorded prices end October 6, 2026, before October 13 entry conditions are known. The following chart overlays an average seasonal path from this article’s seven selected years, scaled for comparison with recorded prices, over the next 60 weekdays, October 7–December 29. That horizon is separate from the full seasonal window and illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target. Before entry, use TradeWave to compare this same window across histories and inspect the range of outcomes behind its favorable median.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.