After September's rate increase, gold investors face a practical question: how much confidence should they place in GC's favorable seasonal record? The October 7, 2026 to January 16, 2027 window finished higher in all six selected midterm years, but broader histories include losses. The window opens today; observations end October 6 and cannot establish entry conditions.[1][3]
August demand, September policy
The World Gold Council's September 9 report says August physically backed ETF inflows reached US$18bn, led by North America and Europe. Holdings rose 121 tonnes to a record 4,189; inflows and higher prices lifted assets. Likely drivers included currency-policy concerns, fiscal and Treasury-market concerns, and price momentum. North American year-to-date dollar flows turned positive, while tonnage demand stayed negative in August, turning positive by September 7.[2]
On September 16, the Fed raised its target range a quarter percentage point to 3.75%–4%, citing elevated inflation alongside solid activity. It described geopolitical uncertainty, resilient spending, strong productivity and robust investment. The statement establishes neither an effect on subsequent gold moves nor a gold forecast.[1]
August gold ETF inflows by region
Reported inflows for August 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 7.7 | August 2026 | reported |
| Europe | 7.9 | August 2026 | reported |
| Asia | 2 | August 2026 | reported |
A favorable midterm record
TradeWave's selected study covers six midterm-election years from 2002–2022, with a median full-window long result of 8.52% before costs. These are complete historical windows. Their price changes do not establish attainable profits on futures, options or exchange-traded products.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.12% | +11.12% | -3.76% |
| 2006 | +7.99% | +12.33% | -1.80% |
| 2010 | +2.56% | +7.29% | -1.23% |
| 2014 | +5.38% | +5.61% | -6.50% |
| 2018 | +9.05% | +9.27% | +0.00% |
| 2022 | +12.16% | +12.96% | -5.02% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a positive finish can conceal
The yearly range chart shows each year's same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. The latest selected example is useful: October 7, 2022 to January 16, 2023 finished up 12.16%, yet prices reached 5.02% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal discomfort hidden by the ending result, without showing their sequence or a peak-to-trough loss.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.12% | +11.12% | -3.76% |
| 2006 | +7.99% | +12.33% | -1.80% |
| 2010 | +2.56% | +7.29% | -1.23% |
| 2014 | +5.38% | +5.61% | -6.50% |
| 2018 | +9.05% | +9.27% | +0.00% |
| 2022 | +12.16% | +12.96% | -5.02% |
Less consistent across all years
The broader checks ask whether encouragement survives beyond selected midterms: profitable windows fall from 80.0% in 2016–2025 to 70.0% in 2006–2025. That weakens confidence in the perfect six-observation record without establishing an election effect. The shorter comparison shares 2018 and 2022 with the study; the longer shares every selected year except 2002. Agreement therefore provides limited independent confirmation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 8.52% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 4.01% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 3.64% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Inspect the range behind the result
Next, compare this same window across TradeWave's histories and inspect the range of outcomes. The price illustration below uses this article's six selected years, overlaying an average seasonal path scaled to the price chart. Recorded prices end October 6, 2026. Only the historical illustration extends across the next 60 weekdays, October 7–December 29, shorter than the full window ending January 16, 2027. It illustrates historical shape, not a prediction or price target.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement · 2026-09-16
- Global demand drives record holdings · 2026-09-09
- TradeWave GC seasonal evidence · 2026-10-07