Investors in PepsiCo common stock (Nasdaq: PEP) will learn more about growth and margins when third-quarter results arrive tomorrow. How much confidence should seasonal history add to their assessment?[2][3]
The October 7, 2026–May 17, 2027 window begins today. All 10 selected midterm-year windows from 1986–2022 gained, although broader consecutive-year histories were less favorable.[3]
Q2 context
July 9’s Q2 revenue grew 6.4% through organic growth (2.4%), currency and acquisitions/divestitures. North American foods declined on lower pricing; beverages gained from acquisitions and organic growth. International volumes strengthened, with Latin America improving. GAAP EPS rose 137%; core EPS, 4%. Prior-year impairments, lower restructuring and favorable deal charges/credits boosted operating profit. Productivity and pricing supported core profit despite higher costs; core margin fell to 16.8% from 17.2%.[1]
2026 guidance remained: organic revenue growth 2%–4%; core constant currency EPS growth 4%–6%; implied revenue growth 4%–6% and core EPS growth approximately 5%–7%. Unpredictable impacts precluded GAAP guidance.[1]
PepsiCo second-quarter reported net revenue
12 weeks ended June 14, 2025 and June 13, 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 22,726 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 24,181 | Q2 2026 | reported |
A favorable midterm record
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record has a 20.2% median full-window long result. That supports investigating the timing, but ten selected observations cannot establish an election-driven advantage or an expected return.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +20.00% | +39.92% | -3.84% |
| 1990 | +29.60% | +47.15% | -9.23% |
| 1994 | +42.06% | +44.41% | -0.00% |
| 1998 | +13.28% | +27.71% | -10.09% |
| 2002 | +21.03% | +26.61% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +8.51% | +9.00% | -4.03% |
| 2010 | +9.21% | +9.75% | -4.70% |
| 2014 | +6.72% | +8.94% | -3.52% |
| 2018 | +22.58% | +22.92% | -3.38% |
| 2022 | +20.39% | +23.41% | -0.26% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What investors endured
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. October 7, 1998–May 17, 1999 illustrates why endings alone mislead: it gained 13.28% but fell 10.09% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough losses; they are not stops or forecasts.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +20.00% | +39.92% | -3.84% |
| 1990 | +29.60% | +47.15% | -9.23% |
| 1994 | +42.06% | +44.41% | -0.00% |
| 1998 | +13.28% | +27.71% | -10.09% |
| 2002 | +21.03% | +26.61% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +8.51% | +9.00% | -4.03% |
| 2010 | +9.21% | +9.75% | -4.70% |
| 2014 | +6.72% | +8.94% | -3.52% |
| 2018 | +22.58% | +22.92% | -3.38% |
| 2022 | +20.39% | +23.41% | -0.26% |
Checking broader histories
Broader histories test whether the favorable reading survives across all years. The 2016–2025 median was 8.57%, versus 20.2% for selected midterms; 2006–2025 also looked weaker. Confidence should remain limited: the shorter comparison reuses 2018 and 2022, while the longer also reuses 2006, 2010 and 2014. Agreement therefore offers limited independent confirmation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 20.2% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 8.57% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 8.68% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Tomorrow’s report, then the path
October 8 brings results for the quarter ended September 5, with materials expected around 6:00 a.m. EDT and the analyst session at 8:15 a.m. EDT.[2]
Recorded prices end October 6, 2026, leaving entry conditions unobserved. The following illustration uses this article’s selected midterm years, rescaling their average seasonal path onto the price chart for the next 60 weekdays, October 7–December 29. That shorter horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target. In TradeWave, inspect this same window’s range of outcomes across histories.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- PepsiCo Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Results · 2026-07-09
- PepsiCo Announces Timing and Availability of Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results · 2026-08-25
- TradeWave PEP seasonal evidence · 2026-10-07