For investors weighing the S&P 500’s record territory, how much encouragement does seasonal history offer? Cboe reported a 0.73% rise in early trading on October 6 and attributed the rally to a small group of technology stocks, especially AI names.[1]
The approaching October 31, 2026–July 22, 2027 window makes that question timely. All 15 selected midterm-election windows from 1966–2022 finished higher, although comparisons across all years included losses. The favorable seasonal record concerns the complete window, not a return starting today.[5]
The economy before entry
BLS’s October 2 release reported September payroll growth of 29,000, versus a preceding 12-month monthly average of 45,000, and unemployment of 4.2%. July and August gains were revised down by a combined 60,000.[2]
On September 16, the Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4%. It described solid activity and resilient spending, alongside elevated inflation.[3]
S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed Vylor’s October 1 addition, a reminder that index composition evolves.[4]
September job changes in selected industries
BLS estimates for September 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Health care | 17 | September 2026 | reported |
| Construction | 11 | September 2026 | reported |
| Manufacturing | 9 | September 2026 | reported |
What the selected windows show
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window increase at 17.63%. Fifteen observations offer historical context, not an election-based explanation. These are index-level changes, not attainable profits from futures, options or exchange-traded products.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | +16.87% | +18.77% | -1.63% |
| 1970 | +18.68% | +26.45% | -1.53% |
| 1974 | +23.75% | +30.69% | -13.22% |
| 1978 | +9.06% | +12.90% | -1.48% |
| 1982 | +24.67% | +26.67% | -1.90% |
| 1986 | +26.43% | +28.94% | -3.47% |
| 1990 | +25.95% | +28.70% | -0.79% |
| 1994 | +17.84% | +19.18% | -6.24% |
| 1998 | +22.43% | +27.77% | -0.47% |
| 2002 | +11.56% | +14.64% | -10.94% |
| 2006 | +11.87% | +12.91% | -1.23% |
| 2010 | +13.56% | +15.72% | -0.96% |
| 2014 | +4.76% | +5.78% | -2.25% |
| 2018 | +10.08% | +11.29% | -13.47% |
| 2022 | +17.63% | +18.25% | -4.49% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A higher finish can hide losses
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 31, 2018–July 22, 2019 illustrates the distinction: a 10.08% ending gain accompanied a low 13.47% below the starting level. Its usefulness is showing what a positive finish can conceal. Highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough losses.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | +16.87% | +18.77% | -1.63% |
| 1970 | +18.68% | +26.45% | -1.53% |
| 1974 | +23.75% | +30.69% | -13.22% |
| 1978 | +9.06% | +12.90% | -1.48% |
| 1982 | +24.67% | +26.67% | -1.90% |
| 1986 | +26.43% | +28.94% | -3.47% |
| 1990 | +25.95% | +28.70% | -0.79% |
| 1994 | +17.84% | +19.18% | -6.24% |
| 1998 | +22.43% | +27.77% | -0.47% |
| 2002 | +11.56% | +14.64% | -10.94% |
| 2006 | +11.87% | +12.91% | -1.23% |
| 2010 | +13.56% | +15.72% | -0.96% |
| 2014 | +4.76% | +5.78% | -2.25% |
| 2018 | +10.08% | +11.29% | -13.47% |
| 2022 | +17.63% | +18.25% | -4.49% |
Checking broader histories
Comparisons across all years test whether encouragement extends beyond midterms. Median results were 10.34% for 2016–2025 and 9.86% for 2006–2025, both below the selected study and both including losses. That tempers confidence in the limited midterm sample. They reuse two and five selected midterm observations respectively; the shorter history also sits entirely within the longer one, limiting independent confirmation.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 15 selected midterm-election years (1966–2022) | 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 17.63% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 10.34% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 9.86% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect next
BLS’s November 6 employment report is the next scheduled labor checkpoint after entry.[2]
The price chart below records index levels through October 6, 2026. Its scaled average seasonal path uses this article’s 15 selected midterm years for the next 60 weekdays, October 7–December 29, 2026. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices or a target. In TradeWave, inspect this same window across histories and compare ending results with the ranges endured.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
15 selected midterm-election years (1966–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Markets Take Off as Tech Stocks Rally · 2026-10-06
- Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M09 Results · 2026-10-02
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement · 2026-09-16
- Vylor Added to the S&P 500; Twilio Set to Join S&P 500; Others to Join S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 · 2026-10-01
- TradeWave SPX seasonal evidence · 2026-10-07