Can HP's new AI PCs turn product promise into sales? Its October 7 release reported a public Windows demonstration on the ZGX Fury workstation and expected October 16 availability for two RTX Spark OmniBooks, without reporting device sales.[1]
That availability falls within the October 11, 2026–February 12, 2027 seasonal window. TradeWave's selected midterm record shows 14 gains in 15 windows, although broader histories are weaker. How much weight should investors give that favorable timing while demand remains unproven?[1][4]
Results and expectations
HP's August 26 Q3 results showed revenue of $15.7 billion versus $13.9 billion a year earlier. Management credited its constraints strategy for improved memory supply and fulfillment; Personal Systems units fell 16%.[3]
GAAP and non-GAAP EPS were $0.71 and $0.83, including $0.11 in tariff refunds. Raised FY2026 EPS guidance was $2.52–$2.62 and $3.19–$3.29; Q4 ranges were $0.74–$0.84 and $0.69–$0.79, respectively. Both annual ranges include $0.19 in estimated refunds; both quarterly ranges include $0.08.[3]
The September 21 filing supplied no FY2027 financial guidance. Its preliminary assumption of roughly mid-single-digit industry PC unit declines in calendar 2027 depends on second-half 2026 market performance and could change. It is not an HP earnings forecast.[2]
HP's third-quarter segments moved in different directions
Fiscal 2026 third quarter revenue change versus the prior-year quarter
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Systems | 18 | Q3 FY2026 | reported |
| Printing | -2 | Q3 FY2026 | reported |
The selected midterm history
TradeWave's study covers 15 selected midterm-election years from 1966–2022, not consecutive years. Its 23.56% median describes complete historical windows, not an expected return from today's price.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | +39.47% | +44.38% | -8.58% |
| 1970 | +32.28% | +32.28% | -12.92% |
| 1974 | +14.85% | +15.96% | -24.65% |
| 1978 | -1.54% | +6.95% | -16.61% |
| 1982 | +36.09% | +36.87% | -7.21% |
| 1986 | +39.60% | +42.54% | -4.55% |
| 1990 | +48.41% | +53.03% | -8.29% |
| 1994 | +15.06% | +17.24% | -1.77% |
| 1998 | +47.71% | +62.08% | -4.34% |
| 2002 | +38.87% | +77.14% | -2.91% |
| 2006 | +11.39% | +15.68% | +0.00% |
| 2010 | +17.48% | +20.10% | -1.04% |
| 2014 | +17.85% | +26.24% | -3.27% |
| 2018 | +2.20% | +11.78% | -15.87% |
| 2022 | +23.56% | +26.33% | -2.82% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a positive finish can conceal
The October 11, 2018–February 12, 2019 window illustrates why endings are insufficient: it gained 2.2% but traded 15.87% below the starting price. The yearly range chart shows this same seasonal period for each year, not whole calendar years. Its highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough losses.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | +39.47% | +44.38% | -8.58% |
| 1970 | +32.28% | +32.28% | -12.92% |
| 1974 | +14.85% | +15.96% | -24.65% |
| 1978 | -1.54% | +6.95% | -16.61% |
| 1982 | +36.09% | +36.87% | -7.21% |
| 1986 | +39.60% | +42.54% | -4.55% |
| 1990 | +48.41% | +53.03% | -8.29% |
| 1994 | +15.06% | +17.24% | -1.77% |
| 1998 | +47.71% | +62.08% | -4.34% |
| 2002 | +38.87% | +77.14% | -2.91% |
| 2006 | +11.39% | +15.68% | +0.00% |
| 2010 | +17.48% | +20.10% | -1.04% |
| 2014 | +17.85% | +26.24% | -3.27% |
| 2018 | +2.20% | +11.78% | -15.87% |
| 2022 | +23.56% | +26.33% | -2.82% |
Broader histories moderate the result
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond selected midterms. Median results were lower: 6.34% for 2016–2025 and 9.65% for 2006–2025. The shorter comparison shares 2018 and 2022 with the study; the longer also shares 2006, 2010 and 2014. Reused observations limit independent confirmation, while different periods and only 15 selected midterms weaken any election-based explanation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 15 selected midterm-election years (1966–2022) | 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 93.33% | 23.56% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 6.34% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 9.65% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Availability and the historical illustration
Below, recorded prices end October 7, 2026, before entry. The average seasonal path uses this article's selected midterm years, scaled onto the price chart for the next 60 weekdays, October 8–December 30. That separate, shorter horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target.[4]
Next, watch whether expected October 16 availability materializes. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect the range of outcomes.[1][4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
15 selected midterm-election years (1966–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- HP Leads the Expansion of the Local AI Era from GB300 AI Workstations to RTX Spark Windows PCs · 2026-10-07
- Form 8-K · 2026-09-21
- HP Inc. Reports Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Results · 2026-08-26
- TradeWave HPQ seasonal evidence · 2026-10-08