Dow investors awaiting fresh inflation figures must weigh how much reassurance history offers about the months ahead. A favorable seasonal record provides context for that decision, with limits that matter.[4][3]
The approaching October 11, 2026–July 22, 2027 window makes that question timely. The same seasonal dates produced gains in all ten selected midterm years spanning 1986–2022, although broader histories include losses. How dependable is that favorable record when the choice of years changes?[4]
Jobs slowed; monthly inflation accelerated
BLS’s October 2 release reported little change in September payrolls, up 29,000, and unemployment, at 4.2%. Revised July and August payroll changes were -10,000 and +133,000, reducing their combined estimate by 60,000. October employment is due November 6; its result is unavailable.[2]
The September 11 CPI release showed August prices up a seasonally adjusted 0.4%, versus July’s 0.1%, and an unadjusted 3.4% over 12 months. BLS said gasoline accounted for over one third of the monthly increase.[3]
The Dow is a price weighted spot index, not a directly investable security: constituent share prices affect their weights. As dated background, S&P’s June 23 notice announced Alphabet replacing Verizon effective June 29, with a planned divisor adjustment to prevent the change from distorting the index. The notice does not confirm completion.[1]
Reported payroll gains slowed in September
Latest BLS estimates of monthly nonfarm payroll changes
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 133,000 | August 2026 | reported |
| September 2026 | 29,000 | September 2026 | reported |
A favorable selected record
TradeWave’s seasonal record puts the selected windows’ median full-window rise at 19.03%. That describes the change in the index level across each complete October-to-July period. It does not establish attainable profits on futures, options or exchange traded products.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +37.36% | +40.12% | -0.43% |
| 1990 | +27.39% | +28.37% | -0.20% |
| 1994 | +20.42% | +22.45% | -6.14% |
| 1998 | +37.09% | +40.63% | -1.54% |
| 2002 | +16.66% | +19.14% | -5.52% |
| 2006 | +17.64% | +18.31% | +0.00% |
| 2010 | +15.18% | +16.94% | -0.88% |
| 2014 | +9.37% | +12.44% | -2.85% |
| 2018 | +8.46% | +9.36% | -13.33% |
| 2022 | +21.11% | +21.29% | -1.98% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a positive finish can hide
The yearly range chart shows the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 11, 2018–July 22, 2019 is useful because its 8.46% ending gain concealed a move 13.33% below the starting level. The highs and lows show the range experienced, but neither their order nor the peak-to-trough loss. They are not forecasts or suggested stops.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +37.36% | +40.12% | -0.43% |
| 1990 | +27.39% | +28.37% | -0.20% |
| 1994 | +20.42% | +22.45% | -6.14% |
| 1998 | +37.09% | +40.63% | -1.54% |
| 2002 | +16.66% | +19.14% | -5.52% |
| 2006 | +17.64% | +18.31% | +0.00% |
| 2010 | +15.18% | +16.94% | -0.88% |
| 2014 | +9.37% | +12.44% | -2.85% |
| 2018 | +8.46% | +9.36% | -13.33% |
| 2022 | +21.11% | +21.29% | -1.98% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking the same dates across all years tests how broadly the favorable reading holds: both 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 include losses, with the latter’s median at 10.46%. They reuse two and five selected midterm observations respectively, limiting independent confirmation. The selected study covers only ten midterms and a different mix of market periods, leaving limited grounds for confidence in a repeat.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 19.03% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 11.42% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 10.46% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Inflation after entry
September CPI is scheduled for October 14, after the window begins. The next question is whether monthly inflation eased from August’s pace; that result is unavailable.[3]
Recorded prices end October 8, 2026, so they cannot establish the October 11 starting level. The following price chart overlays the average seasonal path from this article’s ten selected midterm years, scaled to the price chart, over the next 60 weekdays, October 9–December 31, 2026. That shorter, separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices or a price target. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect the range of outcomes behind the favorable finishes.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Alphabet Set to Join and Honeywell International to Remain in Dow Jones Industrial Average · 2026-06-23
- Employment Situation News Release · 2026-10-02
- Consumer Price Index News Release · 2026-09-11
- TradeWave DJI seasonal evidence · 2026-10-09