Investors in the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, an exchange-traded fund known as XLF, have bank earnings to assess before a historically favorable stretch begins. Citi’s scheduled October 13 results arrive before the October 20 seasonal window.[4][2]
All six selected midterm windows gained, though broader histories included losses. How much weight should investors give that timing record as new business evidence arrives?[4]
Employment and bank announcements
BLS’s October 2 release described September payrolls as little changed: up 29,000, with July and August revised lower. Financial activities lost 7,000 jobs and were down 129,000 from May 2025’s peak, mostly in insurance carriers and related activities. These measure sector employment, not XLF earnings or holdings.[1]
Citi’s October 2 announcement supplies a schedule, with no earnings figures or management outlook yet.[2]
Separately, JPMorganChase’s September 15 announcement raised its quarterly common-stock dividend to $1.65 from $1.50, payable October 31. The October 6 record date has passed. This is JPMorganChase’s dividend, not an established XLF distribution.[3]
Financial activities employment fell in three reported months
Monthly change in U.S. financial activities jobs, seasonally adjusted
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | -10 | July 2026 | reported |
| August 2026 | -9 | August 2026 | reported |
| September 2026 | -7 | September 2026 | reported |
A favorable selected record
TradeWave’s selected midterm years span 2002–2022. Their median full-window long result was 9.34%, supporting interest in the October 20, 2026–July 2, 2027 period. Six observations offer limited evidence, not an expected return.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.74% | +16.09% | -15.69% |
| 2006 | +5.69% | +9.89% | -1.96% |
| 2010 | +7.07% | +18.15% | -1.71% |
| 2014 | +11.21% | +13.96% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +8.51% | +9.25% | -14.99% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +19.46% | -1.69% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Gains could include substantial declines
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. October 20, 2018–July 2, 2019 is useful because its 8.51% ending gain coexisted with a move 14.99% below the starting price. The highs and lows do not establish their order, a peak-to-trough drawdown or a future path.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.74% | +16.09% | -15.69% |
| 2006 | +5.69% | +9.89% | -1.96% |
| 2010 | +7.07% | +18.15% | -1.71% |
| 2014 | +11.21% | +13.96% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +8.51% | +9.25% | -14.99% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +19.46% | -1.69% |
Looking across all years
Broader histories test how much the selected years matter: success rates fall from 80.0% for 2016–2025 to 70.0% for 2006–2025, weakening confidence in an unbroken pattern. These overlapping sets provide no independent confirmation: the shorter set reuses midterms 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected midterm except 2002. The difference does not establish an election effect.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 9.34% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 9.34% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 7.79% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before the window opens
Recorded prices end October 8, so they cannot establish October 20 entry conditions. Below, TradeWave overlays an average seasonal path from this article’s six selected years for the next 60 weekdays, October 9–December 31. That separate, shorter horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target.[4]
Next, assess Citi’s October 13 results on their own merits. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect the ranges behind its profitable endings.[2][4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Employment Situation News Release · 2026-10-02
- Citi Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call · 2026-10-02
- JPMorganChase Declares Increased Common Stock Dividend · 2026-09-15
- TradeWave XLF seasonal evidence · 2026-10-09