Amphenol shareholders face a concrete earnings question ahead of its autumn seasonal window: can the company meet its $0.70–$0.71 post-split Q3 adjusted diluted EPS outlook? That is the benchmark set in August.[2][4]
The October 20–April 30 period finished higher in all eight selected midterm years, although broader histories include losses. With the next window running October 20, 2026–April 30, 2027, how much confidence should that record add before entry?[4]
The post-split earnings benchmark
July 29’s Q2 2026 release reported 55% sales growth, 30% organically, excluding acquisitions and currency. Management cited broad demand, exceptional IT datacom growth and acquisitions; adjusted operating margin included $80 million net tariff recoveries.[1]
CommScope outperformance raised expected 2026 sales to $4.6 billion from $4.1 billion and pre-split adjusted diluted EPS accretion to $0.30 from $0.15.[1]
Q3 sales guidance of $9.3–$9.4 billion assumed unchanged markets and exchange rates and excluded further tariff recoveries.[1]
Amphenol’s reported second-quarter sales
Three months ended June 30; company-reported net sales
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 5,650.3 | Three months ended 2025-06-30 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 8,758.1 | Three months ended 2026-06-30 | reported |
A favorable selected record
TradeWave’s seasonal record covers eight selected midterm-election years from 1994 through 2022, with a 15.2% median full-window gain. These are selected years, not consecutive observations. The result describes the complete holding period; it does not establish what the shares will do when this year’s window opens.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | +17.01% | +26.60% | -14.83% |
| 1998 | +14.33% | +33.78% | -2.68% |
| 2002 | +18.10% | +23.14% | -6.81% |
| 2006 | +4.13% | +8.37% | -9.28% |
| 2010 | +15.14% | +21.48% | -0.84% |
| 2014 | +15.25% | +26.01% | -3.00% |
| 2018 | +20.98% | +28.21% | -9.15% |
| 2022 | +11.16% | +19.84% | -0.22% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What winners endured
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. October 20, 2018–April 30, 2019 is useful because its 20.98% ending gain accompanied a move 9.15% below the starting price. A favorable finish could therefore conceal a difficult holding period. The highs and lows do not establish their order or measure peak-to-trough drawdown, and they provide no forecast or stop level.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | +17.01% | +26.60% | -14.83% |
| 1998 | +14.33% | +33.78% | -2.68% |
| 2002 | +18.10% | +23.14% | -6.81% |
| 2006 | +4.13% | +8.37% | -9.28% |
| 2010 | +15.14% | +21.48% | -0.84% |
| 2014 | +15.25% | +26.01% | -3.00% |
| 2018 | +20.98% | +28.21% | -9.15% |
| 2022 | +11.16% | +19.84% | -0.22% |
Broader histories include losses
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading survives beyond the small midterm sample: success was 70.0% for windows starting in 2016–2025 versus 85.0% for 2006–2025. Recent history is less consistent. Both comparisons reuse selected midterm observations, and the longer contains the shorter, limiting independent confirmation and confidence in an election-specific explanation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 8 selected midterm-election years (1994–2022) | 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 15.2% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 13.4% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 15.2% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before the window opens
The August 6 release restated Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance as $0.70–$0.71 post-split versus $1.40–$1.42 pre-split, changing the per-share scale without reducing the underlying forecast.[2]
The September 4 filing confirmed the two-for-one split had taken effect following its scheduled September 2 distribution. It also confirmed a $0.125 post-split dividend payable October 14 to September 22 holders, before the seasonal window opens.[3][4]
Recorded prices end October 9, 2026, so they cannot establish October 20 entry conditions. Below, this article’s eight selected midterm years supply an average seasonal path scaled onto the price chart for the next 60 weekdays, October 12, 2026–January 1, 2027. That horizon is shorter than the full seasonal window and illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target. Before October 20, inspect TradeWave’s same-window outcomes across histories and the range of moves behind their endings.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
8 selected midterm-election years (1994–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Amphenol Reports Record Second Quarter 2026 Results · 2026-07-29
- Amphenol Announces Two-for-One Stock Split and Third Quarter 2026 Dividend · 2026-08-06
- FORM 8-K · 2026-09-04
- TradeWave APH seasonal evidence · 2026-10-12