Copart investors are waiting to see whether its ACV acquisition can clear the remaining conditions before a historically favorable stretch for the shares.[2][3]
Shares gained during October 25–November 28 in all seven selected midterm-election years from 1998–2022. That seasonal window approaches again in 2026, although broader histories include losses. How much confidence should investors place in that seasonal timing?[3]
Volumes and ACV
September 11’s fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter call cited fewer collision claims and one lost customer behind domestic weakness, alongside international growth. New-service investments primarily reduced gross profit; lower interest income after buybacks and a prior-year asset-sale gain affected net-income comparisons. Fiscal 2025 hurricanes affected full-year comparisons. Management forecast a year-end ACV close and earnings accretion in the first full year afterward, with details deferred until closing.[1]
The October 8 filing extended the $10.50-per-share ACV tender to October 15, subject to further change. The HSR antitrust waiting period was scheduled to expire October 13, unless terminated earlier. Both dates remain ahead as of October 12. October 7’s 52.84% tender count did not establish completion; conditions remained.[2]
Copart’s fourth-quarter insurance unit growth diverged by region
Fiscal 2026 fourth quarter, year-over-year change
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic insurance | -7.5% | Q4 FY2026, year over year | reported |
| International insurance | +11.2% | Q4 FY2026, year over year | reported |
Seven favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record shows a 9.8% median full-window gain before costs. Seven observations offer a timing reference, not evidence that elections caused the gains.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +9.80% | +18.69% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +9.91% | +16.81% | -7.45% |
| 2006 | +4.17% | +6.03% | -1.44% |
| 2010 | +6.59% | +7.03% | -1.18% |
| 2014 | +12.27% | +16.81% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +6.88% | +6.90% | -4.13% |
| 2022 | +14.51% | +16.80% | -2.56% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A winning finish can conceal discomfort
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 25–November 28, 2002 illustrates the distinction: shares finished up 9.91% but reached 7.45% below the starting price. That winning example shows the decline investors faced within the period; the highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +9.80% | +18.69% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +9.91% | +16.81% | -7.45% |
| 2006 | +4.17% | +6.03% | -1.44% |
| 2010 | +6.59% | +7.03% | -1.18% |
| 2014 | +12.27% | +16.81% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +6.88% | +6.90% | -4.13% |
| 2022 | +14.51% | +16.80% | -2.56% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond midterms. Success rates were 80.0% in 2016–2025 and 70.0% in 2006–2025: encouraging, but less convincing further back. The first comparison reuses two selected midterms; the second reuses five. Both also share the latest ten windows, so agreement offers limited independent confirmation of the small selected sample.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 9.8% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 6.46% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 5.71% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before the window opens
Watch the October 13 regulatory timetable and October 15 tender deadline for changes to the conditional deal.[2]
Recorded prices below end October 9, 2026. The average seasonal path, scaled to the price chart, uses this article’s seven selected midterm years over the next 60 weekdays, October 12, 2026–January 1, 2027. That separate horizon belongs only to the seasonal illustration, not recorded prices. It illustrates historical shape, not future earnings or a price target. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect its range of outcomes.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Copart – Q4 Earnings Call Transcript · 2026-09-11
- Copart Announces Extension of Tender Offer to Acquire ACV · 2026-10-08
- TradeWave CPRT seasonal evidence · 2026-10-12