Goldman Sachs shareholders weighing when to add exposure face a timely question: how much confidence does October’s seasonal history deserve? The company’s August 12 agreement to acquire NEOS offers a concrete expansion plan, although completion remained conditional.[2][3]
The October 13–30, 2026 window begins tomorrow. GS rose across that period in all six selected midterm-election years from 2002–2022, although broader histories include losses. Did those positive finishes conceal losses shareholders would have endured along the way?[3]
Business
July 14’s release reported $20.34 billion revenue and $6.63 billion net earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Offerings and leveraged finance boosted equity and debt underwriting. Advisory, FICC, equities helped. Wealth fees and investments grew, offset by private banking and lending. Apple Card markdowns hurt Platform. Performance-related pay and transactions raised expenses. Backlog grew, without guaranteeing fees.[1]
The NEOS agreement would expand Goldman’s options-based income ETF offerings. Consideration is up to $2.25 billion, subject to performance or service commitments. In August, Goldman expected a first-quarter 2027 closing, subject to regulatory approval and customary conditions. That expectation supplies no confirmed October event.[2]
Goldman Sachs revenue growth by business
Second quarter 2026 vs. second quarter 2025
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total net revenues | 39 | 2Q2026 vs. 2Q2025 | reported |
| Global Banking & Markets | 53 | 2Q2026 vs. 2Q2025 | reported |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 20 | 2Q2026 vs. 2Q2025 | reported |
| Platform Solutions | -64 | 2Q2026 vs. 2Q2025 | reported |
What the selected midterms show
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record gives the timing question some substance: the median full-window long result was 4.5%. The record chart shows the individual finishes. These six selected midterm years are not consecutive observations, and their consistency cannot establish that elections caused the gains or that this year will follow them.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.99% | +15.58% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +3.41% | +5.51% | -2.53% |
| 2010 | +4.42% | +5.86% | -2.70% |
| 2014 | +4.59% | +4.78% | -4.20% |
| 2018 | +1.89% | +6.36% | -3.17% |
| 2022 | +12.19% | +12.74% | -2.61% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Positive finishes concealed losses
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. October 13–30, 2014 illustrates the difference between the journey and finish: its 4.59% ending gain accompanied a move 4.2% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown; they are not stop levels or forecasts.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.99% | +15.58% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +3.41% | +5.51% | -2.53% |
| 2010 | +4.42% | +5.86% | -2.70% |
| 2014 | +4.59% | +4.78% | -4.20% |
| 2018 | +1.89% | +6.36% | -3.17% |
| 2022 | +12.19% | +12.74% | -2.61% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond midterms: profitable windows were 80.0% in 2016–2025 versus 75.0% in 2006–2025. Both include losses absent from the small selected sample. They reuse two and five selected midterms, respectively, and the shorter history sits inside the longer one, so agreement offers limited independent confirmation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 4.5% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 1.44% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 2.65% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Inspect the window before it opens
Recorded prices end October 9, 2026, so they cannot establish October 13 entry conditions. The illustration below overlays an average seasonal path from this article’s six selected midterm years, scaled onto the price chart. Its next 60 weekdays, October 12, 2026–January 1, 2027, are separate from the full study window: historical shape, not future recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target.[3]
As the window opens, how much confidence do positive finishes warrant? In TradeWave, compare these same dates across histories and inspect the yearly ranges alongside ending results.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Results · 2026-07-14
- Goldman Sachs Announces Agreement to Acquire NEOS Investments · 2026-08-12
- TradeWave GS seasonal evidence · 2026-10-12