JPMorgan Chase shareholders have a higher dividend coming. What will tomorrow’s earnings reveal about the business as the stock’s October-to-January seasonal window opens?[2][3][4]
For October 13 through January 3, TradeWave records gains in 14 of 15 windows starting in 2011–2025, although longer and midterm-election histories are less convincing. The question is how much weight that favorable timing deserves alongside fresh company news.[4]
Earnings and dividend
The September 17 notice schedules third-quarter results for approximately 7:00 a.m. Eastern on October 13, 2026, followed by an 8:30 a.m. call. It supplies no third-quarter forecast.[3]
Second-quarter 2026 net income: $21.2bn GAAP, $16.9bn excluding Visa/equity-investment gains. Management credited activity, execution, investment and capital deployment; flagged geopolitical, inflation, deficit and asset-price risks.[1]
September 15’s declaration raised the quarterly common dividend from $1.50 to $1.65. Payment is scheduled for October 31; the October 6 record date has already passed.[2]
Second-quarter revenue across JPMorgan Chase businesses
Reported second-quarter 2026 segment net revenue
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer & Community Banking | 20.3 | Q2 2026 | reported |
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 24.9 | Q2 2026 | reported |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 6.9 | Q2 2026 | reported |
What the seasonal record offers
TradeWave’s selected history gives this earnings date a seasonal context: the median full-window long result was 10.7%. That describes completed historical windows, before costs. The forthcoming October 13, 2026–January 3, 2027 period remains unobserved; earnings and dividend news cannot establish its return.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | +10.70% | +18.80% | -10.51% |
| 2012 | +5.89% | +6.91% | -8.38% |
| 2013 | +12.02% | +12.57% | -2.68% |
| 2014 | +4.78% | +9.16% | -6.71% |
| 2015 | +4.06% | +12.15% | -3.27% |
| 2016 | +28.77% | +29.55% | -1.48% |
| 2017 | +12.73% | +13.18% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | -7.94% | +6.20% | -14.32% |
| 2019 | +19.56% | +21.17% | +0.00% |
| 2020 | +24.90% | +26.87% | -5.50% |
| 2021 | +0.43% | +7.43% | -5.69% |
| 2022 | +23.54% | +26.78% | +0.00% |
| 2023 | +15.76% | +16.33% | -8.66% |
| 2024 | +9.84% | +14.82% | -1.04% |
| 2025 | +8.47% | +9.51% | -5.66% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What an ending return can hide
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. The selected study’s lone losing window, October 13, 2018–January 3, 2019, is useful because its 7.94% ending loss understates the fall endured: shares reached 14.32% below the starting price. The highs and lows do not establish their order or a peak-to-trough loss.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | +10.70% | +18.80% | -10.51% |
| 2012 | +5.89% | +6.91% | -8.38% |
| 2013 | +12.02% | +12.57% | -2.68% |
| 2014 | +4.78% | +9.16% | -6.71% |
| 2015 | +4.06% | +12.15% | -3.27% |
| 2016 | +28.77% | +29.55% | -1.48% |
| 2017 | +12.73% | +13.18% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | -7.94% | +6.20% | -14.32% |
| 2019 | +19.56% | +21.17% | +0.00% |
| 2020 | +24.90% | +26.87% | -5.50% |
| 2021 | +0.43% | +7.43% | -5.69% |
| 2022 | +23.54% | +26.78% | +0.00% |
| 2023 | +15.76% | +16.33% | -8.66% |
| 2024 | +9.84% | +14.82% | -1.04% |
| 2025 | +8.47% | +9.51% | -5.66% |
Looking further back
Checking other histories tempers confidence: the median falls from 10.7% to 8.93% across 20 consecutive windows starting in 2006–2025, which include the entire primary sample. Ten selected midterm-election years spanning 1986–2022 show a 3.24% median and reuse 2014, 2018 and 2022 from the primary study. These limited, overlapping observations offer weaker support, not independent confirmation or evidence that elections caused the difference.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 15 consecutive historical windows (2011–2025) | 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 93.33% | 10.7% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 8.93% |
| 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 70.0% | 3.24% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Tomorrow’s results and the historical path
The price illustration below uses the selected 2011–2025 years’ average seasonal path, scaled onto the price chart for the next 60 weekdays, October 12, 2026–January 1, 2027. That horizon differs from the full window. Recorded prices end October 9, 2026, so they cannot establish October 13’s starting condition. The future path illustrates historical shape, not an earnings prediction or price target.[4]
After tomorrow’s release, compare this same window across TradeWave histories and inspect its range of outcomes.[3][4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
15 consecutive historical windows (2011–2025). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- JPMORGANCHASE REPORTS SECOND-QUARTER 2026 NET INCOME OF $21.2 BILLION ($7.70 PER SHARE), NET INCOME EXCLUDING SIGNIFICANT ITEMS OF $16.9 BILLION ($6.14 PER SHARE) · 2026-07-14
- JPMorganChase Declares Increased Common Stock Dividend · 2026-09-15
- JPMorganChase to Host Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings Call · 2026-09-17
- TradeWave JPM seasonal evidence · 2026-10-12