Can strong cloud demand keep delivering profits as XLK approaches its autumn seasonal window? Investors in the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, an exchange traded fund, face that question after Microsoft’s July report showed demand strength alongside gross margin pressure.[5][2]
Ahead of October 25, TradeWave’s selected seasonal record shows six positive midterm windows from 2002–2022. Broader histories were profitable 80.0% of the time, tempering confidence in that perfect record. How much weight should investors put on the favorable timing?[5]
Demand and profitability
NVIDIA’s August 26 release reported $96.2 billion for the quarter ended July 26. Its CEO cited “multiple frontier labs scaling in parallel” and “physical AI coming online.” Fiscal Q3 guidance excludes China Data Center compute revenue: $108.0 billion, ±2%; GAAP/non-GAAP gross margins both 74.0%, ±50 basis points, versus 75.0% reported; operating expenses approximately $9.2 billion GAAP and $9.0 billion non-GAAP.[1]
On July 29, Microsoft reported fiscal fourth-quarter cloud revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27%, citing “strong demand across Azure and our first-party AI applications and services.” Company gross margin fell year over year to 67%; management cited Azure sales mix, AI infrastructure investment and usage, “partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains.” Operating income nevertheless rose 18%, matching revenue growth.[2]
Apple’s July 30 release reported $109.4 billion quarterly revenue. Tariff refunds boosted its 50.1% gross margin by approximately two percentage points and its $2.02 earnings per share by $0.11.[3]
NVIDIA’s reported second-quarter revenue mix
Fiscal 2027 second quarter ended July 26, 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 89 | Q2 FY2027, ended 2026-07-26 | reported |
| Edge Computing | 7.2 | Q2 FY2027, ended 2026-07-26 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s study examines October 25 through May 3 of the following year across six selected midterm-election years. The approaching window runs October 25, 2026–May 3, 2027. Its historical median full-window result of 10.9% makes this period worth examining, without establishing what this year will deliver. Six observations offer limited grounds for expecting another positive ending.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.76% | +22.51% | -7.39% |
| 2006 | +9.21% | +9.30% | -1.87% |
| 2010 | +10.99% | +12.44% | -1.82% |
| 2014 | +10.82% | +11.88% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +14.33% | +15.58% | -16.78% |
| 2022 | +15.98% | +18.64% | -7.98% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a winning window can hide
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. October 25, 2018–May 3, 2019 illustrates the distinction: XLK ended up 14.33% but reached 16.78% below the starting price. This winning example exposes risk hidden by the ending result. The highs and lows establish neither their order nor the size of a peak-to-trough loss.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.76% | +22.51% | -7.39% |
| 2006 | +9.21% | +9.30% | -1.87% |
| 2010 | +10.99% | +12.44% | -1.82% |
| 2014 | +10.82% | +11.88% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +14.33% | +15.58% | -16.78% |
| 2022 | +15.98% | +18.64% | -7.98% |
Checking the window across all years
Checks across all years support a favorable reading beyond midterms: median results were 12.25% for 2016–2025 and 10.51% for 2006–2025, though both histories included losses. The shorter check reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected year except 2002 and contains the shorter history. Their agreement therefore offers limited independent confirmation of the small midterm sample.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 10.9% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 12.25% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.51% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
AMD’s November 3 report
AMD’s October 6 notice schedules fiscal third-quarter results for November 3, 2026, after market close, within the approaching seasonal window. What will that report add to the technology demand and profitability picture?[4][5]
Recorded prices end October 9, 2026, so they cannot establish conditions at the October 25 entry. Below, this article’s six selected midterm years supply an average seasonal path over the next 60 weekdays, October 12, 2026–January 1, 2027, separate from the full window. The normalized overlay illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target. Inspect the same window’s outcomes and yearly ranges across histories in TradeWave.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 · 2026-08-26
- Microsoft Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call · 2026-07-29
- Apple reports third quarter results · 2026-07-30
- AMD to Report Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · 2026-10-06
- TradeWave XLK seasonal evidence · 2026-10-12