CSX investors want to know whether freight growth is accompanied by better service. The company has scheduled third-quarter results for October 21, 2026, offering the next report after management’s stated ambition to strengthen execution.[2][1]
As of October 13, 2026, the October 10, 2026–April 27, 2027 seasonal window is underway. All 10 selected midterm-year windows starting in 1986–2022 gained, but broader histories include losses. How much confidence should investors place in that favorable timing record?[3]
Growth alongside uneven service
Results published July 22, 2026 cover the quarter ended June 30, not October conditions. Revenue rose 10% to $3.94 billion; volume increased 6%. CSX credited fuel surcharges, volume and pricing across merchandise, intermodal and coal. Domestic intermodal benefited from customer wins, new services and tighter trucking conditions.[2]
Operating income reached $1.51 billion versus $1.28 billion in Q2 2025, the same-quarter comparison charted here. Net earnings were $1.00 billion, or $0.54 per diluted share.[2]
CSX’s estimated service measures were mixed versus Q2 2025. Train velocity improved 3%, but dwell, time spent in yards, increased 6%. Carload and intermodal trip plan performance declined 5% and 2%. Stronger second-half execution remained management’s intention, not a reported outcome.[2]
CSX second-quarter operating income rose
Reported operating income, quarters ended June 30
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 1.28 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 1.51 | Q2 2026 | reported |
What the selected gains mean
TradeWave’s seasonal record puts the median full-window gain at 21.88%. That supports a favorable reading of the selected history, but ten selected midterm years cannot establish an election effect. These completed-window returns also do not measure the return remaining from today.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +11.84% | +28.54% | -3.10% |
| 1990 | +44.33% | +52.12% | -5.82% |
| 1994 | +23.21% | +24.36% | -4.81% |
| 1998 | +16.45% | +21.08% | -8.67% |
| 2002 | +20.54% | +20.96% | -2.76% |
| 2006 | +28.49% | +35.80% | -1.96% |
| 2010 | +33.31% | +39.34% | -2.25% |
| 2014 | +24.36% | +27.43% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +14.83% | +16.48% | -15.69% |
| 2022 | +15.06% | +25.74% | -2.97% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can conceal discomfort
The yearly range chart shows the same seasonal period in each year, not whole calendar years. October 10, 2018–April 27, 2019 is useful because its 14.83% ending gain masks a move 15.69% below the starting price within the window. The highs and lows show the range experienced, not their order, a peak-to-trough drawdown, a stop level or a forecast.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +11.84% | +28.54% | -3.10% |
| 1990 | +44.33% | +52.12% | -5.82% |
| 1994 | +23.21% | +24.36% | -4.81% |
| 1998 | +16.45% | +21.08% | -8.67% |
| 2002 | +20.54% | +20.96% | -2.76% |
| 2006 | +28.49% | +35.80% | -1.96% |
| 2010 | +33.31% | +39.34% | -2.25% |
| 2014 | +24.36% | +27.43% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +14.83% | +16.48% | -15.69% |
| 2022 | +15.06% | +25.74% | -2.97% |
Across all years
Consecutive histories check whether strength extends across all years: windows starting in 2016–2025 had a lower 14.94% median and two losses, while 2006–2025 also included losses. The selected record therefore looks less dependable beyond its small midterm sample. Both comparisons reuse selected midterm observations, and the shorter history sits entirely within the longer, limiting independent confirmation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 21.88% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 14.94% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 15.52% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
October 21, 2026 results and historical shape
CSX’s September 21 announcement scheduled the October 21, 2026 release after market close, followed by management’s call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. The business question is whether service execution has improved alongside freight growth.[1][2]
Below, recorded prices end October 12, 2026. The normalized average seasonal path overlaid on the price chart uses this article’s 10 selected midterm years for the next 60 weekdays, October 13, 2026–January 4, 2027, a shorter horizon than the full window. That future span belongs only to the historical illustration, not recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect the range behind its gains.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- CSX Corp. Announces Date for Third Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call · 2026-09-21
- CSX Corp. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results · 2026-07-22
- TradeWave CSX seasonal evidence · 2026-10-13