For investors in XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, September’s rate increase raises a timing question: how much confidence should an approaching favorable seasonal record inspire?[2][3]
The October 20, 2026–July 2, 2027 window gained in all six selected historical midterm years. Yet only 70.0% of comparable windows across all years in 2006–2025 gained, tempering that encouraging result.[3]
What the saved releases establish
JPMorganChase’s July 14 release reported second-quarter 2026 GAAP net income of $21.2 billion and diluted EPS of $7.70; excluding Visa-related and equity-investment gains, these were $16.9 billion and $6.14. Reported revenue was $57.347 billion versus $44.912 billion in second-quarter 2025. Management credited elevated market activity, execution, investment and capital deployment, with record revenue across business lines. It also flagged geopolitical tensions, inflation, fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. These are July disclosures, not an October earnings update.[1]
On September 16, the Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75%–4%, citing elevated inflation alongside resilient spending. That decision does not establish October 20 conditions.[2]
JPMorganChase reported revenue rose from a year earlier
GAAP net revenue, second quarter
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 44,912 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 57,347 | Q2 2026 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record covers six midterm-election start years from 2002 through 2022, not consecutive years. The median full-window long result was 9.34% before costs. Six observations offer limited confidence about another occurrence.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.74% | +16.09% | -15.69% |
| 2006 | +5.69% | +9.89% | -1.96% |
| 2010 | +7.07% | +18.15% | -1.71% |
| 2014 | +11.21% | +13.96% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +8.51% | +9.25% | -14.99% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +19.46% | -1.69% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain could require enduring losses
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 20, 2018–July 2, 2019 illustrates the difference between finishing ahead and holding through losses: it ended up 8.51% but reached 14.99% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough loss.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.74% | +16.09% | -15.69% |
| 2006 | +5.69% | +9.89% | -1.96% |
| 2010 | +7.07% | +18.15% | -1.71% |
| 2014 | +11.21% | +13.96% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +8.51% | +9.25% | -14.99% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +19.46% | -1.69% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond midterms. Success falls from 80.0% in 2016–2025 to 70.0% in 2006–2025, making it less convincing further back. The shorter history reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected year except 2002. Agreement therefore provides limited independent confirmation and establishes no election cause.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 9.34% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 9.34% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 7.79% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before October 20
The next question is what conditions prevail at entry. Inspect this same window’s histories and ranges in TradeWave; attainable ETF returns can differ from study results. The price chart below has recorded prices only through October 12, 2026. Its normalized average seasonal path uses this article’s six selected years for the next 60 weekdays, October 13–January 4, 2027. That shorter horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.