Investors in Amazon common stock (NASDAQ: AMZN) face a question ahead of November’s seasonal entry: can the company deliver the operating-profit growth forecast in July?[1][2][3]
The November 13, 2026–April 20, 2027 window has a favorable selected record: all six midterm windows from 2002–2022 gained. Broader histories include losses, however, raising a separate timing question: how much confidence should investors place in that selected record?[3]
July’s outlook sets the benchmark
On July 30, Amazon forecast Q3 2026 operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion, compared with $17.4 billion in Q3 2025. These are forecasts, not reported Q3 results; the supplied sources establish no confirmed reporting date. Its Q3 sales forecast was $197.0 billion to $202.0 billion, or 9% to 12% growth. Amazon said growth excluding Prime Day’s impact in both years would be nearly 400 basis points higher; guidance included an approximately 80-basis-point foreign-exchange headwind. It also assumed no energy-derivative remeasurement effects or additional completed acquisitions, restructurings or legal settlements.[1]
The results published that day covered the quarter ended June 30, 2026: sales rose 20% to $200.6 billion, AWS sales rose 37% to $42.2 billion, and operating income reached $27.5 billion. The business figures also need qualification. Q2 net income included $53.4 billion of non-operating pretax income, primarily from Anthropic investments. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was a $7.6 billion outflow, which Amazon attributed chiefly to increased property and equipment spending reflecting AI investment.[1]
The July 31 filing identifies approximately $640 million in Q2 tariff refunds, mainly reducing North America’s cost of sales and representing most expected refunds. A $551 million unrealized energy-contract gain affected Q2 technology and infrastructure expenses, primarily in AWS.[2]
Amazon second-quarter sales rose
Reported net sales, second quarters of 2025 and 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 167.7 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 200.6 | Q2 2026 | reported |
A favorable, small seasonal record
TradeWave’s seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 15.7%. These six selected midterm years are a small sample, not consecutive years or evidence that elections caused the gains.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +23.71% | +37.38% | -9.70% |
| 2006 | +12.40% | +13.33% | -9.23% |
| 2010 | +15.71% | +20.58% | -1.34% |
| 2014 | +23.08% | +23.84% | -9.87% |
| 2018 | +15.70% | +15.77% | -19.87% |
| 2022 | +5.40% | +15.75% | -17.32% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
The decline inside a winning window
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. The latest selected example, November 13, 2022–April 20, 2023, is useful because its 5.4% ending gain coexisted with a fall 17.32% below the starting price. A positive finish could therefore conceal a difficult holding period. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough drawdown, and do not establish a stop or forecast.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +23.71% | +37.38% | -9.70% |
| 2006 | +12.40% | +13.33% | -9.23% |
| 2010 | +15.71% | +20.58% | -1.34% |
| 2014 | +23.08% | +23.84% | -9.87% |
| 2018 | +15.70% | +15.77% | -19.87% |
| 2022 | +5.40% | +15.75% | -17.32% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests how broadly the favorable reading holds: windows starting in 2016–2025 were 80.0% profitable, versus 75.0% for 2006–2025. Both include losses, tempering confidence in the small midterm sample. The shorter history reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected year except 2002 and contains the shorter history, limiting independent confirmation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 15.7% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 11.14% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 10.42% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before November’s entry
Recorded prices end October 13, 2026, and cannot establish future entry conditions. The following price chart overlays the article’s six selected years’ average seasonal path, scaled for comparison, for the next 60 weekdays, October 14, 2026–January 5, 2027. That separate, shorter horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target.[3]
The next business question is whether reported Q3 performance meets July’s forecast. Before the November entry, readers can inspect this same window’s range of outcomes across histories in TradeWave.[1][3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Amazon.com Announces Second Quarter Results · 2026-07-30
- AMAZON.COM, INC. FORM 10-Q For the Quarterly Period Ended June 30, 2026 · 2026-07-31
- TradeWave AMZN seasonal evidence · 2026-10-14