Gold ETF buyers kept adding money during September’s selloff. For investors considering GC gold futures, does that demand strengthen the case for the approaching November seasonal window?[1][5]
TradeWave’s November 12, 2026–May 14, 2027 window was positive in all six selected midterm years from 2002–2022. Broader histories include losses, tempering that favorable finding.[5]
Fund demand and futures selling
The World Gold Council’s October 7 commentary, covering September 30, put spot gold at US$4,176 an ounce, down 8.5% for September. Its model suggested higher yields and a stronger dollar contributed; it also identified futures liquidation as a likely contributor. COMEX managed money net positions fell 84 tonnes; offsetting spread positions also contracted. The spot quotation is not directly investable, and its movement does not establish achievable futures, options or fund returns.[1]
Physically backed ETFs received US$10 billion in September and a record US$31 billion in Q3. These flows measure fund demand, not GC buying or future returns.[2]
The Fed raised its policy rate by a quarter point on September 16.[3]
September gold ETF inflows by region
World Gold Council reported fund flows through September 30, 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 4 | September 2026 | reported |
| Europe | 3.6 | September 2026 | reported |
| Asia | 2.3 | September 2026 | reported |
What the selected windows show
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record has an 8.17% median full-window long result before costs. That supports examining this period, but six observations cannot establish an election effect. Conditions before November 12 do not establish entry conditions.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +8.57% | +19.85% | -2.77% |
| 2006 | +7.10% | +10.94% | -3.09% |
| 2010 | +9.15% | +15.47% | -4.23% |
| 2014 | +5.74% | +12.48% | -1.48% |
| 2018 | +7.77% | +11.88% | -0.42% |
| 2022 | +13.78% | +16.82% | -2.11% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain could include losses along the way
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole year. November 12, 2010–May 14, 2011 illustrates risk within a winning window: it ended up 9.15% but reached 4.23% below the starting price. The highs and lows do not reveal their order, measure peak-to-trough losses or set a future loss limit.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +8.57% | +19.85% | -2.77% |
| 2006 | +7.10% | +10.94% | -3.09% |
| 2010 | +9.15% | +15.47% | -4.23% |
| 2014 | +5.74% | +12.48% | -1.48% |
| 2018 | +7.77% | +11.88% | -0.42% |
| 2022 | +13.78% | +16.82% | -2.11% |
Broader histories qualify the result
Checking across all years tests whether the finding extends beyond midterms. Windows starting in 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 each had an 80.0% success rate: favorable, but with losses. The first reuses 2018 and 2022; the second reuses every selected midterm except 2002. Their agreement therefore offers limited independent confirmation of the small selected sample.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 8.17% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 9.52% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 7.58% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect before November
The September 11 BLS notice scheduled September CPI for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The saved evidence neither confirms publication nor supplies the result; release status needs checking.[4]
Recorded prices below end October 13, 2026. The overlay uses this article’s six selected years for an average seasonal path, scaled onto the price chart, over the next 60 weekdays, October 14–January 5, 2027. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not future prices. Before November 12, inspect this same window’s broader outcomes in TradeWave.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Gold Market Commentary: Go with the flow · 2026-10-07
- Gold ETF Flows: September 2026 — UK crowned in a record quarter · 2026-10-07
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement · 2026-09-16
- Consumer Price Index News Release · 2026-09-11
- TradeWave GC seasonal evidence · 2026-10-14