NVIDIA investors face a practical question: how much profit can stronger AI sales deliver when management expects lower margins and higher expenses?[1]
That question accompanies the approaching October 29–November 7, 2026 window. TradeWave’s six selected midterm years spanning 2002–2022 all finished higher, although broader histories include losses. What does the business outlook establish before that favorable seasonal stretch?[4]
Revenue growth, narrower margins
NVIDIA’s August 26 release reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, for the quarter ended July 26, 2026. Data Center contributed $89.0 billion, up 117%. Management cited broader AI infrastructure demand.[1]
Fiscal third-quarter 2027 revenue guidance is $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, assuming no Data Center compute revenue from China. Both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are forecast at 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points, versus 75.0% each in Q2.[1]
Forecast operating expenses are about $9.2 billion GAAP and $9.0 billion non-GAAP, versus Q2’s $8.408 billion and $8.232 billion, respectively. Higher sales must also absorb rising costs.[1]
NVIDIA’s reported fiscal second-quarter revenue by business area
Quarter ended July 26, 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 89 | Q2 FY2027, ended 2026-07-26 | reported |
| Edge Computing | 7.2 | Q2 FY2027, ended 2026-07-26 | reported |
A favorable but small sample
TradeWave’s seasonal record shows a 5.64% median full-window gain versus a 12.02% all-window average. The 36.36% gain in 2002 helps explain that gap. Six observations cannot establish an election effect.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +36.36% | +54.77% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +4.06% | +6.40% | -3.82% |
| 2010 | +5.31% | +6.24% | -0.65% |
| 2014 | +5.24% | +10.00% | -1.90% |
| 2018 | +15.18% | +19.60% | -0.00% |
| 2022 | +5.96% | +6.78% | -4.01% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a winning finish conceals
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 29–November 7, 2022 illustrates why finishing higher differs from a comfortable holding period: shares gained 5.96% but traded 4.01% below the starting price. Highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough losses.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +36.36% | +54.77% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +4.06% | +6.40% | -3.82% |
| 2010 | +5.31% | +6.24% | -0.65% |
| 2014 | +5.24% | +10.00% | -1.90% |
| 2018 | +15.18% | +19.60% | -0.00% |
| 2022 | +5.96% | +6.78% | -4.01% |
Broader histories retain losses
Checks across all years broaden the perspective: 2016–2025 produced nine gains in ten windows, versus 17 in 20 for 2006–2025. Favorable does not mean loss-free. They reuse 2018 and 2022, and every selected midterm year except 2002, respectively. The shorter history also sits within the longer one, limiting independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.64% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 5.03% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 5.3% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before October 29
At entry, inspect this window’s range of outcomes across TradeWave histories. Recorded prices end October 13, 2026; they cannot establish entry conditions. The following chart overlays this article’s six selected years’ normalized average seasonal path for the next 60 weekdays, October 14, 2026–January 5, 2027. Those future dates belong only to the historical illustration, a separate horizon from the seasonal window, not a forecast or price target.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 · 2026-08-26
- FORM 10-Q · 2026-08-26
- Productive, Durable, Fungible: How NVIDIA AI Factories Maximize Return on Investment · 2026-10-01
- TradeWave NVDA seasonal evidence · 2026-10-14