SPY investors approaching a historically favorable autumn window have a live question: what inflation and interest-rate backdrop will they face when it opens? September’s Federal Reserve rate increase makes that question timely.[3][2]
This October 14 edition precedes the October 29–December 2, 2026 window. All seven selected midterm years from 1998–2022 finished higher, although broader histories include losses. That makes the 35-day period worth examining without treating its favorable record as a promise.[3]
Inflation evidence before entry
BLS’s September 11 release reported August CPI up 0.4% month over month, seasonally adjusted, versus July’s 0.1%; the unadjusted yearly increase was 3.4%. Gasoline accounted for more than one third of August’s monthly rise. September CPI was scheduled for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, after the saved source check. No September result is supplied, so an updated inflation conclusion remains unverified.[1]
On September 16, the Fed raised its target range a quarter percentage point to 3.75%–4%, citing elevated inflation. Its assessment also included solid economic activity and resilient domestic spending, qualifying a picture focused solely on inflation pressure.[2]
Monthly headline inflation accelerated in August
Reported seasonally adjusted CPI-U change
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | +0.1% | July 2026 | reported |
| August 2026 | +0.4% | August 2026 | reported |
What the selected midterms show
TradeWave’s seasonal record gives that timing question a historical foundation: the median full-window long result was 5.36%. These are seven selected midterm-election years, not consecutive observations. Results cover the complete period before trading costs, not an expected return from today.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +7.20% | +9.43% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +6.28% | +8.45% | -1.26% |
| 2006 | +2.53% | +2.71% | -1.59% |
| 2010 | +3.43% | +3.76% | -0.76% |
| 2014 | +4.53% | +4.93% | -0.36% |
| 2018 | +5.85% | +6.58% | -0.30% |
| 2022 | +5.36% | +6.16% | -4.51% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A positive finish can conceal discomfort
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. The October 29–December 2, 2022 period is useful because its 5.36% gain coexisted with a move 4.51% below the starting price. Ending results therefore miss losses endured inside the window. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown, stop level or forecast.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +7.20% | +9.43% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +6.28% | +8.45% | -1.26% |
| 2006 | +2.53% | +2.71% | -1.59% |
| 2010 | +3.43% | +3.76% | -0.76% |
| 2014 | +4.53% | +4.93% | -0.36% |
| 2018 | +5.85% | +6.58% | -0.30% |
| 2022 | +5.36% | +6.16% | -4.51% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests how widely the strength appears: median results were 3.56% for 2016–2025 and 2.83% for 2006–2025, both with losses. The favorable reading becomes less convincing further back. Seven midterms offer limited evidence of an election effect; both comparisons reuse selected midterms, and the shorter history sits entirely within the longer one, limiting independent confirmation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.36% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 3.56% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 2.83% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Revisit the evidence before October 29
Before entry, reassess the economic backdrop and inspect this same window’s outcomes in TradeWave. Recorded prices end October 13, 2026; they do not establish entry conditions. The following chart overlays the selected seven midterm years’ average seasonal path, rescaled for comparison, over the next 60 weekdays, October 14, 2026–January 5, 2027. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, an inflation forecast or a price target.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Consumer Price Index News Release · 2026-09-11
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement · 2026-09-16
- TradeWave SPY seasonal evidence · 2026-10-14