Can ASML turn customers’ expansion ambitions into delivered growth? Its October 14 release reported record quarterly sales of €11.7 billion, putting production capacity in focus.[1]
For shareholders considering timing, the October 24–December 15 window gained in all seven selected midterm-election years spanning 1998–2022. Broader histories include losses. With the window still ahead of this October 15 edition, how much weight should that favorable record carry?[3]
Production and the higher sales floor
Management credited ramp-up execution for record third-quarter sales. Demand for productivity upgrades lifted installed-base sales above guidance, helping gross margin reach 57.5%; net income was €5.0 billion.[1]
The July 15 interim report described first-half sales growth to €18.1 billion from €15.4 billion a year earlier. Higher EXE and NXE system volumes, favorable EXE and NXT immersion product mix, and higher service and field-option sales drove that increase. Lower NXT immersion volumes partly offset those gains.[2]
October’s full-year sales forecast is €44 billion–€45 billion, compared with July’s €43 billion–€45 billion: the lower end rose while the upper end stayed unchanged. ASML expects full-year gross margin around 56%. Fourth-quarter guidance is €14.2 billion–€15.2 billion in sales and around 57% gross margin.[1][2]
ASML’s reported quarterly sales rose
Second and third quarters of 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 9,326 | Q2 2026 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 11,662 | Q3 2026 | reported |
A favorable midterm record
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record shows a median full-window gain of 12.74%. That supports examining these dates, but seven observations cannot establish a dependable probability or show that elections caused the gains.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +29.86% | +56.23% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +14.40% | +56.17% | -2.83% |
| 2006 | +12.74% | +16.23% | -0.05% |
| 2010 | +11.18% | +15.09% | -4.39% |
| 2014 | +8.72% | +15.25% | -0.82% |
| 2018 | +1.54% | +12.97% | -1.00% |
| 2022 | +24.34% | +36.44% | -7.30% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a winning window endured
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 24–December 15, 2022 is useful because a strong ending result concealed a substantial setback: shares finished up 24.34% but also traded 7.3% below the starting price. The highs and lows do not reveal their order or measure a peak-to-trough loss, and they are not forecasts or stop levels.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +29.86% | +56.23% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +14.40% | +56.17% | -2.83% |
| 2006 | +12.74% | +16.23% | -0.05% |
| 2010 | +11.18% | +15.09% | -4.39% |
| 2014 | +8.72% | +15.25% | -0.82% |
| 2018 | +1.54% | +12.97% | -1.00% |
| 2022 | +24.34% | +36.44% | -7.30% |
Looking across all years
Broader histories test whether the dates look favorable across all years: 80.0% of windows gained in 2016–2025, versus 70.0% in 2006–2025. The pattern remains favorable but less consistent. Both reuse selected midterm observations, and the shorter history sits within the longer one, limiting independent confirmation of the small primary sample.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 12.74% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 3.67% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 6.35% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Capacity and the approaching window
Customers raised equipment-demand forecasts primarily because of their expectations for AI investment. Those forecasts are not realized orders or sales. ASML expects planned 2027 and 2028 supply to fall short and is investigating additional 2028 capacity, leaving its ability to meet anticipated demand a question to follow.[1]
The price chart below overlays an average seasonal path from this article’s seven selected midterm years on recorded prices ending October 14, 2026. The illustration covers the next 60 weekdays, October 15, 2026–January 6, 2027, a separate horizon from the full seasonal window. It illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target. Before October 24, inspect this same window across histories and its range of outcomes in TradeWave.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- ASML reports €11.7 billion total net sales and €5.0 billion net income in Q3 2026 · 2026-10-14
- ASML Statutory Interim Report 2026 · 2026-07-15
- TradeWave ASML seasonal evidence · 2026-10-15