Can Bank OZK sustain lending growth while managing troubled real estate loans? Investors get fresh evidence with third-quarter earnings scheduled after the October 20 market close and management’s October 21 call.[4][2]
Those events precede the October 25–December 1, 2026 seasonal window. All six selected midterm-election years from 2002–2022 gained over that period, although broader histories include losses. That favorable timing record makes the approaching 38-day window worth examining alongside the business uncertainty.[5]
The July baseline
The latest reported results, released July 21, showed second-quarter diluted EPS of $1.49, below $1.58 in second-quarter 2025 but above first-quarter 2026’s $1.44.[3]
Management said strong Corporate & Institutional Banking and other lending growth mostly offset near-record Real Estate Specialties Group repayments. Sponsors’ difficulty raising equity and financing competition restrained new real estate originations.[4]
Second-quarter net charge-offs were $56.3 million, primarily involving four previously troubled office or life science loans. Failed sales and withdrawn sponsor support featured in those cases, although most sponsors continued supporting projects. July guidance called for mid-single-digit loan growth in 2026 and 10%–11% in 2027, relying on lending outside real estate specialties, but only modest second-half net interest income growth over the first half.[4]
Bank OZK’s last reported diluted earnings per share
Reported quarterly diluted EPS through June 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 1.58 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q1 2026 | 1.44 | Q1 2026 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 1.49 | Q2 2026 | reported |
A favorable selected record
TradeWave’s seasonal record shows a 5.44% median full-window long result. Six selected observations offer limited evidence: they describe historical share-price timing, without establishing an election effect or predicting the coming earnings response.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +6.36% | +11.80% | -1.46% |
| 2006 | +2.87% | +5.59% | -3.06% |
| 2010 | +2.21% | +4.82% | -2.35% |
| 2014 | +4.53% | +11.87% | -0.12% |
| 2018 | +7.92% | +13.03% | -2.86% |
| 2022 | +7.61% | +14.20% | -2.80% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Gains still involved declines
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. The most recent selected example, October 25–December 1, 2022, finished up 7.61% but reached 2.80% below the starting price. It illustrates discomfort hidden by a positive ending. Highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough losses.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +6.36% | +11.80% | -1.46% |
| 2006 | +2.87% | +5.59% | -3.06% |
| 2010 | +2.21% | +4.82% | -2.35% |
| 2014 | +4.53% | +11.87% | -0.12% |
| 2018 | +7.92% | +13.03% | -2.86% |
| 2022 | +7.61% | +14.20% | -2.80% |
Looking across all years
Checking broader histories tests whether the favorable reading depends on selecting midterms. Profitable windows accounted for 90.0% in 2016–2025 versus 80.0% in 2006–2025: still favorable, but less consistent further back. The shorter history reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected year except 2002. They also overlap each other, limiting independent confirmation.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.44% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 7.76% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 6.07% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before the window opens
The $0.49 common dividend is payable October 20, but its October 13 record date has passed.[1]
Recorded prices end October 14, 2026, so they cannot establish October 25 entry conditions. The chart below overlays the selected years’ normalized average seasonal path for the next 60 weekdays, October 15–January 6, 2027. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices or a target. After earnings, compare this same window’s outcomes and ranges in TradeWave.[5][2]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Bank OZK Announces Increase to Quarterly Common Stock Dividend and Announces Preferred Stock Dividend · 2026-10-01
- Bank OZK Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call Dates · 2026-09-30
- Bank OZK Announces Second Quarter 2026 Earnings · 2026-07-21
- Management Comments for the Second Quarter of 2026 · 2026-07-21
- TradeWave OZK seasonal evidence · 2026-10-15