After Goldman Sachs’s October 13 earnings release, shareholders face a familiar question: can strength in dealmaking and equities sustain confidence in the shares when other businesses are weaker?[1]
The October 22–November 3, 2026 seasonal window brings that question into focus. GS gained in all six selected midterm-election windows spanning 2002–2022, although broader histories include losses. With the window still ahead, how much confidence does that favorable but small record deserve?[3]
Growth with offsets
Released October 13, results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 showed revenue of $18.68 billion, up 23% from the third quarter of 2025 but down 8% from the second quarter of 2026. Diluted EPS was $17.01, versus $12.25 and $20.98, respectively.[1]
Completed mergers and acquisitions and initial and secondary equity offerings lifted investment banking fees year over year. Equities revenue grew through financing and derivatives intermediation. Yet the banking-fee backlog declined from June and slightly from year-end 2025. Goldman cautioned that transactions may change or fail to close, so backlog does not establish future fee revenue.[1]
Asset & Wealth Management’s higher management and incentive fees were partly offset by weaker investments and private banking and lending revenue. Platform Solutions’ sharp year-over-year revenue decline primarily reflected Apple Card loan portfolio markdowns. The portfolio had been transferred to held for sale in the fourth quarter of 2025.[1]
Goldman Sachs’s segments diverged in the third quarter
Year-over-year change in reported segment net revenue, third quarter 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Banking & Markets | +32% | 3Q2026 versus 3Q2025 | reported |
| Asset & Wealth Management | +14% | 3Q2026 versus 3Q2025 | reported |
| Platform Solutions | -72% | 3Q2026 versus 3Q2025 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 4.08%. That makes this period worth examining, but six observations cannot establish an election-driven effect, and the broader histories below are less favorable. The record concerns share-price timing; September’s business results do not establish conditions at the October 22 entry or validate a future seasonal return.[3][1]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +4.94% | +7.76% | -1.91% |
| 2006 | +1.32% | +4.82% | -1.08% |
| 2010 | +3.09% | +3.82% | -0.94% |
| 2014 | +7.92% | +8.57% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +3.21% | +4.55% | -5.96% |
| 2022 | +6.14% | +8.74% | -0.85% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a positive finish can hide
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. October 22–November 3, 2018 illustrates why the finish is insufficient: GS ended up 3.21% but reached 5.96% below the starting price. A shareholder could therefore have endured a substantial decline during a winning window. The highs and lows do not establish their order or measure a peak-to-trough loss.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +4.94% | +7.76% | -1.91% |
| 2006 | +1.32% | +4.82% | -1.08% |
| 2010 | +3.09% | +3.82% | -0.94% |
| 2014 | +7.92% | +8.57% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +3.21% | +4.55% | -5.96% |
| 2022 | +6.14% | +8.74% | -0.85% |
Looking across all years
Broader histories test whether the favorable reading extends across all years. The all-window average falls from 2.67% for 2016–2025 to 0.98% for 2006–2025, making the pattern less convincing further back. Neither independently confirms the small midterm sample: the shorter history reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected year except 2002 and includes the entire shorter history.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 4.08% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 2.08% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 1.89% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before October 22
The chart below overlays an average seasonal path from this article’s six selected midterm years, scaled to the price chart. Recorded prices end on October 15, 2026. The next 60 weekdays, October 16, 2026–January 7, 2027, belong only to the historical illustration, a separate horizon from the full seasonal window. This illustrates historical shape, not an earnings prediction or price target. Before October 22, compare this same window across histories and inspect its range of outcomes in TradeWave to judge how much weight its favorable record deserves.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Goldman Sachs Reports Third Quarter Earnings Per Common Share of $17.01 · 2026-10-13
- Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results Presentation · 2026-10-13
- TradeWave GS seasonal evidence · 2026-10-16