Progressive investors face a practical question before November reporting: can stronger underwriting continue alongside slower premium growth? September offered encouragement on insurance profitability without explaining the slowdown.[1][2]
The planned November 2 filing coincides with the start of PGR’s November 2, 2026–May 16, 2027 seasonal window. All ten historical windows starting in 2016–2025 finished higher, although selected midterm years were less favorable. How much weight should investors give that timing record while the business outlook remains unresolved?[4][1]
Better underwriting, slower growth
The October 14, 2026 release reports September and third-quarter results through September 30. September net premiums written rose 2% to $7.255 billion from $7.128 billion a year earlier. The combined ratio improved to 90.0 from 100.4, indicating better underwriting profitability.[1]
Third-quarter premiums written rose 4%, but net income fell 3% to $2.542 billion. Progressive provided no additional commentary explaining September’s results.[1]
August’s year-over-year premium growth was 6%, providing the preceding monthly benchmark.[2]
September premiums written increased year over year
Progressive reported net premiums written for September
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2025 | 7,128 | September 2025 | reported |
| September 2026 | 7,255 | September 2026 | reported |
A favorable November-to-May record
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts those developments in perspective: the median full-window long result was 18.48%. These completed November-to-May outcomes describe historical timing, not an expected return from today or evidence that underwriting strength will persist.[4]
For business context, the August 3 shareholder letter linked slow second-quarter premium growth partly to stable loss trends and competitors’ rate actions in a competitive market. Management said the combined ratio reflected adequate pricing, with room to absorb potential weather losses while maintaining targeted profitability. Those explanations concern the second quarter; they do not establish September’s causes.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +31.31% | +33.99% | -0.42% |
| 2017 | +27.60% | +30.46% | -0.32% |
| 2018 | +18.43% | +19.55% | -17.07% |
| 2019 | +15.05% | +26.27% | -6.75% |
| 2020 | +18.52% | +19.66% | -8.67% |
| 2021 | +17.92% | +29.12% | -5.24% |
| 2022 | +1.74% | +17.50% | -5.85% |
| 2023 | +31.10% | +37.92% | -6.07% |
| 2024 | +20.85% | +23.75% | -3.47% |
| 2025 | +6.56% | +16.56% | -0.54% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Winning windows still fell
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. November 2, 2018–May 16, 2019 illustrates why the finish is insufficient: PGR gained 18.43% but also traded 17.07% below the starting price. The highs and lows show the losses investors could face within a winning window, without establishing their order or a peak-to-trough loss.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +31.31% | +33.99% | -0.42% |
| 2017 | +27.60% | +30.46% | -0.32% |
| 2018 | +18.43% | +19.55% | -17.07% |
| 2019 | +15.05% | +26.27% | -6.75% |
| 2020 | +18.52% | +19.66% | -8.67% |
| 2021 | +17.92% | +29.12% | -5.24% |
| 2022 | +1.74% | +17.50% | -5.85% |
| 2023 | +31.10% | +37.92% | -6.07% |
| 2024 | +20.85% | +23.75% | -3.47% |
| 2025 | +6.56% | +16.56% | -0.54% |
A less uniform longer history
Other histories test how broadly the finding holds. Across all years in 2006–2025, 19 of 20 windows gained, although that comparison reuses all ten primary observations. The ten selected midterm-election years spanning 1986–2022 had a 5.94% median, versus 18.48% in the primary study. That weaker result tempers confidence, but the small sample spans different market eras and cannot establish an election effect. Shared 2018 and 2022 observations also limit independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 100.0% | 18.48% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 95.0% | 17.51% |
| 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 70.0% | 5.94% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
November disclosures and the historical path
Progressive plans its third-quarter 10-Q for November 2, 2026, an investor call November 3 at 9:30 a.m. Eastern, and October results November 18 before the market opens. Dates may change. The next question is whether underwriting strength and slower premium growth continue.[1]
Below, recorded prices end October 15, 2026. The overlay uses this article’s selected 2016–2025 years to illustrate an average seasonal path over the next 60 weekdays, October 16, 2026–January 7, 2027, a separate horizon from the full window. That future span illustrates historical shape, not recorded prices, future earnings or a price target. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect its range of outcomes.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- PROGRESSIVE REPORTS SEPTEMBER RESULTS · 2026-10-14
- PROGRESSIVE REPORTS AUGUST RESULTS · 2026-09-18
- Letter to Shareholders — Second Quarter 2026 · 2026-08-03
- TradeWave PGR seasonal evidence · 2026-10-16