With AMD’s earnings approaching, investors in the XLK exchange-traded fund have a timely question: how much reassurance does its seasonal history offer while they await fresh evidence on technology demand?[3][4]
The October 25, 2026–May 3, 2027 window was positive in all six selected midterm-election years, although broader histories include losses. October 15 observations cannot establish conditions at that future entry.[4]
Growth and its qualifications
NVIDIA’s August 26 release reported $96.2 billion revenue for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, versus $46.743 billion a year earlier. Revenue grew 106% annually; Data Center grew 117% to $89.0 billion. Both rose 18% sequentially. Management cited accelerating demand and a broader AI infrastructure buildout.[1]
Fiscal third-quarter guidance put revenue at $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, assuming no China Data Center compute revenue. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were forecast at 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points; respective operating expenses at about $9.2 billion and $9.0 billion.[1]
Apple’s July 30 release reported June-quarter revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16%. Tariff refunds added approximately two percentage points to its 50.1% gross margin and $0.11 to $2.02 diluted EPS.[2]
NVIDIA’s Data Center revenue within reported quarterly revenue
Fiscal second quarter 2027, ended July 26, 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 96.2 | Q2 FY2027 | reported |
| Data Center revenue | 89 | Q2 FY2027 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s seasonal record gives those business developments a timing context. Across six selected midterm-election start years from 2002–2022, the median full-window long result was 10.9%. Company releases establish neither XLK’s holdings nor a future seasonal return.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.76% | +22.51% | -7.39% |
| 2006 | +9.21% | +9.30% | -1.87% |
| 2010 | +10.99% | +12.44% | -1.82% |
| 2014 | +10.82% | +11.88% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +14.33% | +15.58% | -16.78% |
| 2022 | +15.98% | +18.64% | -7.98% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain could require enduring losses
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 25, 2018–May 3, 2019 illustrates the stakes: a 14.33% ending gain accompanied a low 16.78% below the starting price. Highs and lows reveal neither their sequence nor peak-to-trough losses.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.76% | +22.51% | -7.39% |
| 2006 | +9.21% | +9.30% | -1.87% |
| 2010 | +10.99% | +12.44% | -1.82% |
| 2014 | +10.82% | +11.88% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +14.33% | +15.58% | -16.78% |
| 2022 | +15.98% | +18.64% | -7.98% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests whether reassurance extends beyond six midterms. The 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 windows each finished positively 80.0% of the time. Their medians were 12.25% and 10.51%, respectively. They reuse two and five selected midterm observations, so agreement offers limited independent confirmation and does not establish an election effect.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 10.9% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 12.25% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.51% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Next earnings, then inspect the range
AMD’s November 3 fiscal third-quarter results, scheduled after market close with a 5 p.m. Eastern call, are the next checkpoint for technology demand.[3]
Inspect this window’s outcomes in TradeWave. Below, recorded prices end October 15, 2026. The normalized average seasonal path uses these same six selected years over the next 60 weekdays, October 16–January 7, 2027. That shorter illustration shows historical shape, not future recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 · 2026-08-26
- Apple reports third quarter results · 2026-07-30
- AMD to Report Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · 2026-10-06
- TradeWave XLK seasonal evidence · 2026-10-16