Amazon’s 37% AWS growth leaves shareholders asking whether expansion can deliver cash alongside profits as AI spending rises.[1]
TradeWave’s November 17, 2026–July 19, 2027 long window gained in all six selected midterm-election years, 2002–2022. Broader histories include losses: how dependable is that favorable seasonal record before entry?[3]
Growth and the cash bill
Amazon.com common stock trades as NASDAQ: AMZN. Its July 30 release reported Q2 2026 sales of $200.6 billion, up 20%, including $42.2 billion from AWS. Operating income rose to $27.5 billion from $19.2 billion a year earlier.[1]
Trailing twelve-month free cash flow shifted from an $18.2 billion inflow to a $7.6 billion outflow, primarily through higher AI-related property and equipment purchases. Net income of $62.6 billion included $53.4 billion of non-operating pretax other income, mainly from Anthropic investments.[1]
July 31’s filing disclosed $640 million in tariff refunds, mainly lowering North America costs and comprising most expected refunds. Unrealized energy-contract gains of $551 million also primarily benefited AWS operating expenses.[2]
Amazon’s reported second-quarter net sales
Comparable quarters ended June 30
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 167.7 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 200.6 | Q2 2026 | reported |
What the selected years show
TradeWave’s selected history puts the median full-window gain at 46.9%. Six separated midterm observations justify examining these dates, but cannot establish an election effect or an expected return.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +57.58% | +82.11% | -17.80% |
| 2006 | +72.39% | +77.09% | -14.69% |
| 2010 | +37.71% | +37.92% | +0.00% |
| 2014 | +51.09% | +52.67% | -11.70% |
| 2018 | +29.90% | +34.62% | -13.57% |
| 2022 | +42.71% | +44.07% | -14.15% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A winning finish can conceal losses
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year. November 17, 2022–July 19, 2023 illustrates the distinction: a 42.71% ending gain accompanied a low 14.15% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +57.58% | +82.11% | -17.80% |
| 2006 | +72.39% | +77.09% | -14.69% |
| 2010 | +37.71% | +37.92% | +0.00% |
| 2014 | +51.09% | +52.67% | -11.70% |
| 2018 | +29.90% | +34.62% | -13.57% |
| 2022 | +42.71% | +44.07% | -14.15% |
Across all years
Broader histories test whether the favorable reading survives across all years. Success rates were 90.0% for 2016–2025 and 80.0% for 2006–2025, both with 28.02% medians. Confidence therefore softens. They reuse two and five selected midterm observations respectively, and overlap each other, limiting independent confirmation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 46.9% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 28.02% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 28.02% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before November’s entry
July’s Q3 forecasts remain forecasts: sales of $197.0–$202.0 billion, up 9%–12%, and operating income of $22.5–$26.5 billion versus Q3 2025’s $17.4 billion. Excluding Prime Day in both years, projected sales growth was nearly 400 basis points higher; currency was an anticipated 80-basis-point drag.[1]
Compare the next results with those benchmarks. October 29 is TradeWave’s earnings estimate, not a company-confirmed date. Inspect this same window’s range of outcomes in TradeWave before entry.[3]
The following chart overlays a scaled average seasonal path using this article’s six selected years for the next 60 weekdays, October 19, 2026–January 8, 2027, a separate horizon from the full window. Recorded prices end October 16, 2026 and cannot establish November’s starting conditions. The future illustration shows historical shape, not a prediction or price target.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Amazon.com Announces Second Quarter Results · 2026-07-30
- FORM 10-Q · 2026-07-31
- TradeWave AMZN seasonal evidence · 2026-10-19