Can beverage-can growth sustain Crown’s raised earnings outlook? Investors get fresh evidence with third-quarter results scheduled after the NYSE close today, October 19, 2026.[1][4]
Today also opens its October 19–June 15 seasonal window. All ten selected midterm-year windows finished higher, although broader histories were less consistent. How much confidence should investors place in that favorable timing?[5]
The earnings baseline
Crown’s July release provides both earnings baselines for the quarter ended June 30, 2026: GAAP diluted EPS was $2.23 versus $1.56 in the same quarter of 2025, while adjusted diluted EPS was $2.49 versus $2.15.[1]
Management attributed 5% global beverage-can volume growth to gains in Asia, Europe and North America that outweighed softer Latin American demand. The sales increase shown alongside also included higher material-cost pass-through and favorable currency translation. Higher shipments and strength in beverage-can equipment and North American tinplate supported segment income, partly offset by inflation.[1]
July’s forecasts were $2.20–$2.30 adjusted diluted EPS for Q3 and a raised $8.30–$8.50 for 2026. These non-GAAP measures do not replace GAAP results; Crown supplied no corresponding GAAP forecasts or reconciliations because excluded items could not be reliably estimated.[1]
Crown’s reported second-quarter sales rose
Quarter ended June 30; company-reported net sales
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 3,149 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 3,668 | Q2 2026 | reported |
Ten selected midterm windows
TradeWave’s seasonal record covers ten selected midterm-election years spanning 1986–2022. Its 21.54% median describes complete historical windows, each running from October 19 to June 15 the following year. That favorable result rests on a small selected sample. The current window ends June 15, 2027; the historical median is no promised return.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +19.66% | +29.73% | -1.97% |
| 1990 | +38.32% | +40.59% | -9.75% |
| 1994 | +22.81% | +25.31% | -10.31% |
| 1998 | +20.67% | +33.82% | -7.02% |
| 2002 | +19.96% | +57.17% | -22.36% |
| 2006 | +33.89% | +36.74% | -0.63% |
| 2010 | +22.40% | +35.79% | -0.49% |
| 2014 | +18.15% | +22.17% | -6.14% |
| 2018 | +26.61% | +35.27% | -13.97% |
| 2022 | +5.31% | +9.74% | -20.56% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Winning endings, difficult stretches
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. October 19, 2022–June 15, 2023 illustrates the difference between finishing ahead and enduring losses: it gained 5.31% but reached 20.56% below the starting price. The highs and lows show how far prices moved from the start, without revealing their order or measuring peak-to-trough losses.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +19.66% | +29.73% | -1.97% |
| 1990 | +38.32% | +40.59% | -9.75% |
| 1994 | +22.81% | +25.31% | -10.31% |
| 1998 | +20.67% | +33.82% | -7.02% |
| 2002 | +19.96% | +57.17% | -22.36% |
| 2006 | +33.89% | +36.74% | -0.63% |
| 2010 | +22.40% | +35.79% | -0.49% |
| 2014 | +18.15% | +22.17% | -6.14% |
| 2018 | +26.61% | +35.27% | -13.97% |
| 2022 | +5.31% | +9.74% | -20.56% |
Checking broader histories
Across all years, the same window’s median was 3.38% for starts in 2016–2025 versus 5.8% for 2006–2025. These checks show that the favorable timing was less convincing across broader histories. Both reuse selected midterm observations, and the shorter history sits inside the longer one, limiting independent confirmation. Differences between periods do not establish an election effect.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 21.54% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 60.0% | 3.38% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 5.8% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect next
After tonight’s release, the October 20 call at 9 a.m. EDT is the next opportunity to examine management’s outlook and its account of beverage-can demand.[4]
Below, recorded prices end October 16, 2026. The average seasonal path uses this article’s selected years for the next 60 weekdays, October 19, 2026–January 8, 2027, a shorter horizon than the full window. It illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect its range of outcomes.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Crown Holdings, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results · 2026-07-20
- Crown Holdings, Inc. Form 10-Q for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 · 2026-07-30
- Crown Breaks Ground on the Company's First Beverage Can Manufacturing Facility in India · 2026-09-11
- Crown Holdings Schedules Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call · 2026-09-22
- TradeWave CCK seasonal evidence · 2026-10-19