CSX investors will soon learn whether stronger second-quarter profits carried into the third quarter, as the railroad changes its operating leadership.[4][3][1]
The earnings release falls just inside TradeWave’s October 20, 2026–April 28, 2027 seasonal window. All 10 selected midterm-election windows from 1986–2022 finished higher, although broader histories include losses. That favorable timing record raises a practical question: how much confidence does it deserve?[5][3]
Profits, costs and the transition
The July 22 filing covers the quarter ended June 30. Alongside the revenue increase shown here, operating income rose to $1.506 billion from $1.283 billion in Q2 2025; fuel expense increased to $446 million from $269 million. The captured evidence supplies neither management’s explanation for these changes nor current earnings guidance.[4]
The October 13 filing says Michael Cory ceased serving as chief operating officer on October 12 and will provide transition services through May 8, 2027. It establishes no effect on third-quarter results.[1]
CSX second-quarter revenue increased
Reported revenue for quarters ended June 30
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 3,574 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 3,935 | Q2 2026 | reported |
A favorable midterm record
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 15.8%. These are 10 separate midterm-election years, not consecutive years. Their consistency makes the period worth investigating, but does not establish what this earnings report or window will deliver.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +14.67% | +29.69% | -1.77% |
| 1990 | +38.13% | +45.59% | -9.03% |
| 1994 | +17.22% | +20.53% | -7.74% |
| 1998 | +14.67% | +15.70% | -15.95% |
| 2002 | +14.03% | +14.43% | -8.01% |
| 2006 | +20.65% | +29.20% | -6.66% |
| 2010 | +30.04% | +33.89% | -1.59% |
| 2014 | +10.81% | +13.85% | -4.06% |
| 2018 | +16.93% | +18.61% | -14.15% |
| 2022 | +13.91% | +23.47% | -0.44% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Winning endings can conceal losses
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. October 20, 2018–April 28, 2019 is useful because its 16.93% ending gain coexisted with a move 14.15% below the starting price. Highs and lows reveal what investors endured, without establishing their order, a peak-to-trough loss or a future stop level.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +14.67% | +29.69% | -1.77% |
| 1990 | +38.13% | +45.59% | -9.03% |
| 1994 | +17.22% | +20.53% | -7.74% |
| 1998 | +14.67% | +15.70% | -15.95% |
| 2002 | +14.03% | +14.43% | -8.01% |
| 2006 | +20.65% | +29.20% | -6.66% |
| 2010 | +30.04% | +33.89% | -1.59% |
| 2014 | +10.81% | +13.85% | -4.06% |
| 2018 | +16.93% | +18.61% | -14.15% |
| 2022 | +13.91% | +23.47% | -0.44% |
Checking across all years
The consecutive 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 histories check whether favorable timing extends beyond midterms. Both show 80.0% profitable windows and a 12.5% median, supporting a favorable but imperfect reading. They respectively reuse the study’s 2018 and 2022 observations, and its 2006–2022 midterm observations. With overlapping histories and only 10 selected midterms, agreement offers limited independent confirmation or evidence of an election effect.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 15.8% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 12.5% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 12.5% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect next
CSX’s September 21 notice schedules results after the October 21 market close and a management call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Those disclosures are the next business checkpoint.[3]
Recorded prices below end October 16, 2026, before entry. The average seasonal path uses this article’s selected years over the next 60 weekdays, October 19–January 8, 2027, a separate horizon from the full window. It illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect its range of outcomes.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Form 8-K · 2026-10-13
- CSX Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend · 2026-10-08
- CSX Corp. Announces Date for Third Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call · 2026-09-21
- FORM 10-Q · 2026-07-22
- TradeWave CSX seasonal evidence · 2026-10-19