As QQQ’s seasonal window approaches, investors face a concentration question: how much comfort can history offer when semiconductors and semiconductor equipment represented 36.66% of June 30 holdings?[5][2]
The October 25, 2026–April 26, 2027 window was positive in all six selected midterm years spanning 2002–2022. Broader histories include losses, making the dependability of that favorable record the central question.[5]
Holdings, assets and AMD
Invesco QQQ Trust tracks Nasdaq-100 exposure and is investable, unlike the spot index. Invesco says a small group has driven meaningful recent index performance and weight, increasing dependence on those companies.[3][2]
The August 28 filing lists AMD among June 30 holdings, without establishing October ownership. AMD’s fiscal third-quarter results are scheduled for November 3 after market close, within the window; the notice supplies neither results nor a forecast.[2][4][5]
Invesco’s October 9 release reported preliminary September 30 QQQ assets of $498.9 billion versus $489.0 billion at August 31. These balances establish neither returns nor net inflows. Its explanation of unfavorable market returns concerns firmwide AUM, not the cause of QQQ’s change.[1]
QQQ assets under management at two reported month-ends
Invesco-reported QQQ AUM; September figure preliminary
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | 489 | 2026-08-31 | reported |
| September 30 | 498.9 | 2026-09-30 | reported |
A favorable selected record
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record shows a median full-window long result of 11.61%, before costs. That supports examining the calendar opportunity, not expecting the same gain. The study’s October 16 last observation cannot establish QQQ’s condition at the future October 25 entry.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.25% | +16.56% | -5.59% |
| 2006 | +9.91% | +10.15% | -1.93% |
| 2010 | +13.74% | +14.15% | -2.00% |
| 2014 | +12.40% | +13.32% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +11.97% | +12.31% | -15.89% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +13.61% | -8.84% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Winning periods could hurt
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its entire calendar year. October 25, 2018–April 26, 2019 illustrates why the ending result can mislead: QQQ finished up 11.97% but reached 15.89% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough drawdown, and provide no stop or forecast.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.25% | +16.56% | -5.59% |
| 2006 | +9.91% | +10.15% | -1.93% |
| 2010 | +13.74% | +14.15% | -2.00% |
| 2014 | +12.40% | +13.32% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +11.97% | +12.31% | -15.89% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +13.61% | -8.84% |
Broader histories include losses
Checking the same window across all years tests how broadly the finding holds: both 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 were 80.0% profitable. That preserves a favorable reading while challenging certainty from six midterm observations. Both comparisons reuse selected midterm years and overlap one another, limiting independent confirmation; they do not establish an election effect.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 11.61% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.47% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.47% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before entry and earnings
Ahead of AMD’s November 3 results, inspect this window’s outcomes in TradeWave. The price chart below uses the same six selected years for a rescaled average seasonal path over the next 60 weekdays, October 19, 2026–January 8, 2027. Recorded prices end October 16, 2026. The future span is only a historical illustration, shorter than the full window, not an earnings prediction or price target.[5][4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Invesco Ltd. Announces September 30, 2026 Assets Under Management · 2026-10-09
- Schedule of Investments — Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) · 2026-08-28
- Building versatile portfolios with the QQQ Innovation Suite · 2026-10-06
- AMD to Report Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · 2026-10-06
- TradeWave QQQ seasonal evidence · 2026-10-19