Investors considering SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, face a timely question: what will fresh inflation and spending figures show as a historically favorable seasonal period begins?[3][2]
BEA’s September report arrives October 29, the window’s entry date. All seven selected midterm windows gained, although broader histories include losses. The report’s findings remain unknown.[3][2]
The inflation and spending baseline
BLS’s October 14 release puts September CPI growth at 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, versus August’s 0.4%; annual growth was 3.7%, unadjusted. Gasoline rose 9.1%, accounting for over half the monthly increase. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% in both months. October CPI is scheduled for November 10.[1]
BEA’s September 30 release supplies the spending benchmark: August consumption rose 0.9% in current dollars and 0.6% after inflation. Its PCE price index increased 3.4% over 12 months, or 3.0% excluding food and energy. October 29 brings September’s update.[2]
September headline inflation exceeded core inflation
September 2026 CPI-U, seasonally adjusted change from August
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| All items | +0.6% | September 2026 versus August 2026 | reported |
| Less food and energy | +0.3% | September 2026 versus August 2026 | reported |
Seven favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s seasonal record covers October 29–December 2 in seven selected midterm-election years spanning 1998–2022. The median full-window long result was 5.36% before costs. Seven observations offer limited reassurance for 2026.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +7.20% | +9.43% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +6.28% | +8.45% | -1.26% |
| 2006 | +2.53% | +2.71% | -1.59% |
| 2010 | +3.43% | +3.76% | -0.76% |
| 2014 | +4.53% | +4.93% | -0.36% |
| 2018 | +5.85% | +6.58% | -0.30% |
| 2022 | +5.36% | +6.16% | -4.51% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can conceal discomfort
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole year. October 29–December 2, 2022 is useful because its 5.36% ending gain coexisted with a move 4.51% below the starting price. Highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough loss, and establish no future limit.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +7.20% | +9.43% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +6.28% | +8.45% | -1.26% |
| 2006 | +2.53% | +2.71% | -1.59% |
| 2010 | +3.43% | +3.76% | -0.76% |
| 2014 | +4.53% | +4.93% | -0.36% |
| 2018 | +5.85% | +6.58% | -0.30% |
| 2022 | +5.36% | +6.16% | -4.51% |
Broader history tempers confidence
Checking across all years tests how broadly the favorable record holds. Success rates were 80.0% in 2016–2025 and 70.0% in 2006–2025: encouraging, but less convincing further back. These histories reuse 2018 and 2022, and every selected midterm year from 2006 onward, respectively. The longer history also contains the shorter one, limiting independent confirmation and any election-based explanation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.36% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 3.56% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 2.83% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect at entry
October 29’s question is whether spending growth and inflation changed from August. Those results cannot validate a seasonal return.[2][3]
Recorded prices end October 16, 2026, before entry. The chart below overlays a normalized average seasonal path using this article’s selected years for the next 60 weekdays, October 19, 2026–January 8, 2027. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices or a price target. Inspect this same window’s outcomes across histories in TradeWave.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M09 Results · 2026-10-14
- Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 · 2026-09-30
- TradeWave SPY seasonal evidence · 2026-10-19