Bank of America’s rising revenue and falling profit leave XLF investors facing uneven earnings. How much encouragement does the fund’s seasonal history offer as more results arrive?[1]
The October 20, 2026–July 2, 2027 window approaches with gains in all six selected historical midterm windows. Broader histories include losses, qualifying that favorable seasonal record.[5]
Revenue growth, uneven earnings
Reporting October 14 for the quarter ended September 30, Bank of America posted revenue of $30.0 billion, up 3%, versus $29.0 billion a year earlier. Net income fell to $6.9 billion from $8.3 billion; excluding a $1.2 billion regulatory settlement charge, non-GAAP adjusted income was $8.1 billion. Improved yield supported net interest income growth, alongside higher loan and deposit balances, markets activity and fixed-rate repricing. Asset management fees and commercial lending grew; investment banking and trading revenue fell.[1]
Morgan Stanley’s October 14 report for the same quarter showed net revenue of $20.3 billion versus $18.2 billion. Equity and wealth management strengthened. Fixed income weakened in credit and commodities; investment management suffered a carried-interest reversal despite higher asset management fees. The graphic compares company revenue, not XLF returns.[2]
Morgan Stanley’s reported third-quarter net revenue
Comparable quarters ended September 30
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 18.2 | Q3 2025 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 20.3 | Q3 2026 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s six selected midterm-election years spanning 2002–2022 produced a 9.34% median full-window long result. This small sample offers historical timing context, without establishing an election-driven effect.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.74% | +16.09% | -15.69% |
| 2006 | +5.69% | +9.89% | -1.96% |
| 2010 | +7.07% | +18.15% | -1.71% |
| 2014 | +11.21% | +13.96% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +8.51% | +9.25% | -14.99% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +19.46% | -1.69% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can conceal discomfort
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not entire calendar years. October 20, 2018–July 2, 2019 illustrates why endings are insufficient: XLF finished up 8.51% but traded 14.99% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their sequence nor peak-to-trough losses.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.74% | +16.09% | -15.69% |
| 2006 | +5.69% | +9.89% | -1.96% |
| 2010 | +7.07% | +18.15% | -1.71% |
| 2014 | +11.21% | +13.96% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +8.51% | +9.25% | -14.99% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +19.46% | -1.69% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking the same dates across all years tests how widely the strength holds: profitable windows fall from 80.0% for 2016–2025 to 70.0% for 2006–2025. That makes the perfect midterm record less convincing. The shorter comparison reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected year except 2002 and contains the shorter comparison, limiting independent confirmation.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 9.34% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 9.34% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 7.79% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Visa next, then inspect the history
Visa’s fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results arrive October 27 after market close, the next confirmed earnings checkpoint.[4]
Below, recorded XLF prices end October 16, 2026, before entry. The normalized average seasonal path uses this article’s six selected years over the next 60 weekdays, October 19–January 8, 2027. Those future dates illustrate historical shape, separately from the full window, without predicting prices. Inspect TradeWave’s same-window histories and ranges to judge how much confidence the selected record deserves.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- October 14, 2026 - THE PRESS RELEASE - 8-K: Current report | Bank of America Corporation (BAC) · 2026-10-14
- Morgan Stanley Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results · 2026-10-14
- Federal Reserve Board finalizes changes to enhance the transparency and public accountability of its stress test and reduce volatility in its stress test-related capital requirements · 2026-09-30
- Visa to Announce Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2026 Financial Results on October 27, 2026 · 2026-10-08
- TradeWave XLF seasonal evidence · 2026-10-19