Goldman Sachs shareholders face a question after its October 13 earnings release: can stronger year-over-year results sustain business momentum despite a softer quarter? Its approaching seasonal window brings the shares’ timing into focus.[1][3]
The October 22–November 3, 2026 window finished higher in all six selected midterm years, but broader histories included losses and weaker returns. How much confidence does that favorable seasonal record deserve before this year’s window begins?[3]
Growth with qualifications
Goldman Sachs common stock trades on the NYSE as GS. Its October 13 release covers the quarter ended September 30, 2026: net revenues were $18.68 billion, up 23% year over year but down 8% sequentially. Diluted EPS was $17.01, versus $12.25 in third-quarter 2025 and $20.98 in second-quarter 2026.[1]
Completed mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings and secondary equity offerings helped lift investment banking fees year over year. Yet the fee backlog declined from the second quarter and slightly from year-end 2025, qualifying any expectation that completed activity will continue.[1]
Equities revenue rose 72% year over year, helped by prime and portfolio financing and derivatives intermediation. FICC revenue was essentially unchanged as stronger financing offset weaker intermediation.[1]
Goldman Sachs third-quarter revenue by segment
Reported net revenues for the quarter ended September 30, 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Banking & Markets | 13.46 | 3Q2026 | reported |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 5.05 | 3Q2026 | reported |
| Platform Solutions | 0.17 | 3Q2026 | reported |
A favorable midterm record
TradeWave’s six selected midterm-election years, spanning 2002–2022, produced a median full-window long result of 4.08%. That favors closer inspection of these dates, but six observations cannot establish dependable odds. The broader comparisons below show why the selected record should not stand alone.[3]
The business picture also has offsets. Asset & Wealth Management’s year-over-year revenue growth reflected higher management and incentive fees, partly offset by weaker investments and private banking and lending revenue. Apple Card portfolio markdowns primarily explained Platform Solutions’ year-over-year revenue decline. Higher transaction expenses and performance-related compensation drove operating expenses higher year over year; charitable contributions also increased.[1]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +4.94% | +7.76% | -1.91% |
| 2006 | +1.32% | +4.82% | -1.08% |
| 2010 | +3.09% | +3.82% | -0.94% |
| 2014 | +7.92% | +8.57% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +3.21% | +4.55% | -5.96% |
| 2022 | +6.14% | +8.74% | -0.85% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A winning finish could conceal losses
The yearly range chart shows the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 22–November 3, 2018 illustrates why the ending result alone is insufficient: GS finished up 3.21% but traded 5.96% below the starting price. The highs and lows do not reveal their order or measure a peak-to-trough loss, and they are not forecasts or stop levels.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +4.94% | +7.76% | -1.91% |
| 2006 | +1.32% | +4.82% | -1.08% |
| 2010 | +3.09% | +3.82% | -0.94% |
| 2014 | +7.92% | +8.57% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +3.21% | +4.55% | -5.96% |
| 2022 | +6.14% | +8.74% | -0.85% |
Less convincing further back
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond midterms. Average full-window results were 2.67% for 2016–2025 versus 0.98% for 2006–2025, weakening confidence further back. These limited histories overlap: the shorter comparison reuses selected years 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected year except 2002 and contains the shorter comparison. Agreement therefore offers no independent confirmation of an election effect.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 4.08% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 2.08% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 1.89% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect before entry
The October 13 release supplies no quantified seasonal or future earnings forecast. The $5.00 common-share dividend declared October 12 remains payable December 30 to holders of record December 2, 2026.[1]
Recorded prices end October 19, 2026, so they cannot establish October 22 entry conditions. The chart below overlays an average seasonal path from this article’s six selected years, scaled to the price chart, for the next 60 weekdays, October 20, 2026–January 11, 2027. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not recorded future prices, an earnings prediction or a price target. Before entry, compare this same window across histories and inspect its range of outcomes in TradeWave.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results · 2026-10-13
- Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results Presentation · 2026-10-13
- TradeWave GS seasonal evidence · 2026-10-20