Microsoft investors want to know whether cloud expansion can sustain profits as AI infrastructure costs rise. Fiscal 2027 first-quarter results, due after the October 28 close, will put that balance back in focus.[1][3]
That report falls inside the approaching October 27–November 9 seasonal window: eight of nine selected midterm-year windows finished higher, although broader histories were less strong. How much weight should investors give that favorable timing around earnings?[1][4]
Growth and its costs
July 29 results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 provide background: revenue rose 18% year over year to $90.0 billion; Microsoft Cloud rose 27% to $59.3 billion; Azure and other cloud services grew 43%.[2]
Commercial remaining performance obligation rose 84% to $678 billion, but management said growth excluding OpenAI was 25%. It also said all sequential growth in these contracted future revenues came from customers outside frontier model companies.[2][3]
Management reported $41 billion in quarterly capital expenditure, including higher component pricing. Company gross margin fell year over year to 67%, reflecting Azure mix, AI infrastructure investment and usage, partly offset by efficiency gains.[3]
Microsoft’s reported fourth-quarter segment revenue
Quarter ended June 30, 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity and Business Processes | 37.8 | FY2026 Q4, ended 2026-06-30 | reported |
| Intelligent Cloud | 39.3 | FY2026 Q4, ended 2026-06-30 | reported |
| More Personal Computing | 12.9 | FY2026 Q4, ended 2026-06-30 | reported |
A favorable selected record
TradeWave’s seasonal record covers nine selected midterm-election years from 1990–2022. Its median full-window long result was 3.59%. This supports examining the approaching 14-day period, but nine observations cannot establish an election effect or predict the earnings reaction.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | +3.59% | +6.38% | -0.82% |
| 1994 | +3.45% | +4.87% | -1.22% |
| 1998 | +4.98% | +5.63% | -0.65% |
| 2002 | +3.68% | +10.20% | -2.12% |
| 2006 | +3.25% | +3.74% | -0.07% |
| 2010 | +3.45% | +10.83% | -0.50% |
| 2014 | +6.49% | +7.06% | -0.31% |
| 2018 | +5.51% | +8.08% | -3.60% |
| 2022 | -0.99% | +4.34% | -5.87% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What ending returns conceal
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. October 27–November 9, 2022 is useful because its modest 0.99% ending loss concealed a move 5.87% below the starting price. Highs and lows show what occurred within the window, without establishing their order or a peak-to-trough drawdown.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | +3.59% | +6.38% | -0.82% |
| 1994 | +3.45% | +4.87% | -1.22% |
| 1998 | +4.98% | +5.63% | -0.65% |
| 2002 | +3.68% | +10.20% | -2.12% |
| 2006 | +3.25% | +3.74% | -0.07% |
| 2010 | +3.45% | +10.83% | -0.50% |
| 2014 | +6.49% | +7.06% | -0.31% |
| 2018 | +5.51% | +8.08% | -3.60% |
| 2022 | -0.99% | +4.34% | -5.87% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests whether favorable timing extends beyond midterms. The 2016–2025 median was 0.83%, versus the selected study’s 3.59%; 2006–2025 also remained positive but weaker. Neither independently confirms the small selected sample: the shorter comparison reuses 2018 and 2022, while the longer also reuses 2006, 2010 and 2014. Different eras also limit an election-based explanation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 9 selected midterm-election years (1990–2022) | 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 88.89% | 3.59% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 0.83% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 1.18% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Separate operating progress from timing
October’s profit assessment should distinguish operating progress from discrete benefits. June GAAP diluted EPS was $4.81, versus $4.74 excluding OpenAI investment effects. Separately, EPS benefited by $0.27 versus April guidance from a $3.2 billion Anthropic investment gain and lower-than-expected retirement-program expenses, partly offset by Xbox severance and impairment charges. Microsoft said revenue, operating income and EPS exceeded expectations even after adjusting for these items.[2]
Below, recorded prices end October 19, 2026, before the window begins. The illustration overlays an average seasonal path from this article’s selected years for the next 60 weekdays, October 20, 2026–January 11, 2027. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target.[4]
October 28 brings the next assessment of cloud growth and its costs. Alongside that report, readers can inspect this same window’s outcomes and ranges across the supplied histories in TradeWave.[1][3][4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
9 selected midterm-election years (1990–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Microsoft announces quarterly earnings release date · 2026-10-07
- Microsoft Cloud and AI Strength Fuels Fourth Quarter Results · 2026-07-29
- Microsoft Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call · 2026-07-29
- TradeWave MSFT seasonal evidence · 2026-10-20