Investors in NVIDIA common stock (Nasdaq: NVDA) face a familiar question: can AI sales keep expanding while margins ease? Management’s August outlook anticipates further revenue growth alongside lower gross margins.[1]
The approaching October 29–November 7, 2026 window adds a timing question. All six selected midterm windows from 2002–2022 gained, although broader histories include losses. How much confidence does that favorable seasonal record deserve as investors assess the AI outlook?[4][2]
Revenue rises, margin guidance eases
NVIDIA’s August 26 release reported fiscal 2027 second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from $46.743 billion a year earlier, for the quarter ended July 26, 2026.[1]
For fiscal 2027’s third quarter, management forecast revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, assuming no Data Center compute revenue from China. Both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are forecast at 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points, versus 75.0% reported for both in the second quarter.[1]
The CFO commentary said second-quarter Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117% year over year, was “driven by the ramp of our Blackwell Ultra infrastructure.” Management attributed AI Clouds, Industrial, & Enterprise growth to demand from AI-native companies, enterprises, sovereign customers and hyperscalers using AI clouds.[2]
NVIDIA’s reported second-quarter revenue by market platform
Fiscal 2027 second quarter ended July 26, 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 89 | Q2 FY2027 | reported |
| Edge Computing | 7.2 | Q2 FY2027 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s seasonal record puts the median full-window gain at 5.64%. The 36.36% gain in 2002 helps explain the much higher 12.02% all-window average. Six observations offer limited confidence about the coming 10-calendar-day period, and their selection does not establish an election-driven effect.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +36.36% | +54.77% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +4.06% | +6.40% | -3.82% |
| 2010 | +5.31% | +6.24% | -0.65% |
| 2014 | +5.24% | +10.00% | -1.90% |
| 2018 | +15.18% | +19.60% | -0.00% |
| 2022 | +5.96% | +6.78% | -4.01% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Declines inside a winning window
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole year. October 29–November 7, 2022 illustrates why the ending result is insufficient: shares finished up 5.96% but also traded 4.01% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough loss, and they do not set a limit on future losses.[4]
The business picture also has offsets. Management said Edge Computing growth reflected strong Blackwell workstation sales, “partially offset by slower consumer PC sales that were tempered by elevated memory and systems prices.” Supply and capacity commitments rose from $119 billion to $279 billion, primarily for memory.[2]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +36.36% | +54.77% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +4.06% | +6.40% | -3.82% |
| 2010 | +5.31% | +6.24% | -0.65% |
| 2014 | +5.24% | +10.00% | -1.90% |
| 2018 | +15.18% | +19.60% | -0.00% |
| 2022 | +5.96% | +6.78% | -4.01% |
Broader histories retain losses
Checking across all years tests whether strength extends beyond midterms: 2016–2025 had 90.0% profitable windows, versus 85.0% for 2006–2025. Both remain favorable, though imperfect. They reuse two and five selected midterm observations respectively; the shorter history also sits within the longer one. Agreement therefore provides limited independent confirmation of the six-window study.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.64% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 5.03% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 5.3% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect before entry
Recorded prices end October 19, 2026; those conditions do not establish October 29’s entry conditions. The following price chart overlays a scaled average seasonal path from this article’s six selected years over the next 60 weekdays, October 20, 2026–January 11, 2027. That horizon is separate from the full seasonal window and illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target. Before entry, compare this same window’s histories and range of outcomes in TradeWave to judge how much weight its favorable record deserves.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.