With AMD’s November earnings ahead, investors in XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, an exchange-traded fund, face a practical question: how much confidence should seasonal history add to their assessment of technology shares?[5][4]
The October 25, 2026–May 3, 2027 window approaches with gains in all six selected midterm-election years from 2002–2022. That favorable finding deserves attention, although broader histories include losses. Earnings will provide fresh business evidence within this historically favorable period.[5][4]
Growth and profitability
NVIDIA’s August 26, 2026 release reported revenue of $96.2 billion for its second quarter ended July 26, up 106% year over year. Its fiscal third-quarter 2027 forecast was $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, assuming no China Data Center compute revenue.[1]
The CFO said Data Center revenue growth was “driven by the ramp of our Blackwell Ultra infrastructure.” For Edge Computing, management credited strong Blackwell workstation sales, “partially offset by slower consumer PC sales” tempered by elevated memory and systems prices.[2]
The profitability outlook was more restrained. NVIDIA forecast fiscal third-quarter GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points, versus 75.0% for both in the second quarter. It forecast GAAP operating expenses of approximately $9.2 billion and non-GAAP expenses of $9.0 billion, versus reported second-quarter expenses of $8.408 billion and $8.232 billion, respectively.[1]
NVIDIA’s reported year-over-year revenue growth
Fiscal second quarter 2027, ended July 26, 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 106 | Q2 FY2027 | reported |
| Data Center | 117 | Q2 FY2027 | reported |
| Edge Computing | 27 | Q2 FY2027 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 10.9%. These six observations span separate midterm years, offering limited evidence rather than an expected return. They describe the complete October–May holding period, not a return available from today.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.76% | +22.51% | -7.39% |
| 2006 | +9.21% | +9.30% | -1.87% |
| 2010 | +10.99% | +12.44% | -1.82% |
| 2014 | +10.82% | +11.88% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +14.33% | +15.58% | -16.78% |
| 2022 | +15.98% | +18.64% | -7.98% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a positive ending conceals
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. October 25, 2018–May 3, 2019 is useful because its 14.33% ending gain accompanied a move 16.78% below the starting price. A favorable ending could therefore require enduring a substantial decline. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough loss.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.76% | +22.51% | -7.39% |
| 2006 | +9.21% | +9.30% | -1.87% |
| 2010 | +10.99% | +12.44% | -1.82% |
| 2014 | +10.82% | +11.88% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +14.33% | +15.58% | -16.78% |
| 2022 | +15.98% | +18.64% | -7.98% |
The broader histories include losses
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond midterms: windows beginning in 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 both had 80.0% profitable results, tempering confidence in the six-observation perfect record. Overlap limits independent confirmation: the shorter history reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected midterm year except 2002 and contains the shorter history.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 10.9% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 12.25% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.51% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
November earnings and the historical shape
AMD’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 results are scheduled for November 3 after market close, following window entry. They provide the next confirmed earnings checkpoint in the supplied calendar.[4]
The illustration below superimposes TradeWave’s seasonal overlay from this study’s six selected years on the price chart. It covers the next 60 weekdays, October 20, 2026–January 11, 2027, separately from the full seasonal window. Recorded prices end October 19, 2026; the future span belongs only to the seasonal illustration. It shows historical shape, not an earnings prediction or price target. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect the range of outcomes.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 · 2026-08-26
- CFO Commentary on Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results · 2026-08-26
- Apple reports third quarter results · 2026-07-30
- AMD to Report Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · 2026-10-06
- TradeWave XLK seasonal evidence · 2026-10-20