Can GE keep turning engine demand into profits while supply constraints persist? Its October 20 results frame that question for General Electric Company common stock, trading as GE; the company operates as GE Aerospace.[2]
The approaching November 11 seasonal window adds a timing question. All 10 selected midterm-election windows gained, but only half the windows starting in 2016–2025 did. How much confidence should investors place in that favorable selected record?[4]
Growth with operating constraints
For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, GAAP revenue was $14.118 billion versus $12.181 billion a year earlier. GAAP profit was $2.8 billion; non-GAAP operating profit was $3.0 billion. GAAP margin fell 80 basis points while non-GAAP operating margin rose 220. Management cited deliveries, pricing, more shop visits with heavier workscopes and spare parts. Output improved, but supply constraints and inflation are expected to persist.[2]
Commercial Engines & Services raised its 2026 outlook to low-20s revenue growth and $10.5–$10.6 billion operating profit, citing higher services growth and reduced GE9X impact. Delivered GE9X engines await midseal certification before financial recognition. Defense & Propulsion Technologies maintained low-double-digit revenue growth and $1.6–$1.7 billion operating profit. Management expects low-double-digit commercial services growth in 2027, supported by over $170 billion of backlog.[1]
GE Aerospace’s reported third-quarter segment revenue
Quarter ended September 30, 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Engines & Services | 10.3 | Q3 2026 | reported |
| Defense & Propulsion Technologies | 3.5 | Q3 2026 | reported |
A favorable selected record
TradeWave follows November 11 through April 26 of the following year across 10 selected midterm-election years, 1986–2022. The median full-window long result was 24.82%. That highlights the November 11, 2026–April 26, 2027 window without establishing an election effect or a future return.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +31.58% | +45.08% | -5.39% |
| 1990 | +31.76% | +39.10% | -5.87% |
| 1994 | +16.43% | +18.51% | -6.92% |
| 1998 | +31.09% | +35.64% | -1.22% |
| 2002 | +23.84% | +24.93% | -11.35% |
| 2006 | +2.91% | +9.06% | -2.66% |
| 2010 | +24.76% | +33.46% | -4.40% |
| 2014 | +3.80% | +10.75% | -10.42% |
| 2018 | +24.87% | +47.26% | -16.65% |
| 2022 | +43.06% | +51.69% | -11.06% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Winning still involved losses
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. November 11, 2018–April 26, 2019 illustrates the discomfort behind a winner: GE finished up 24.87% but traded 16.65% below its starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough loss.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +31.58% | +45.08% | -5.39% |
| 1990 | +31.76% | +39.10% | -5.87% |
| 1994 | +16.43% | +18.51% | -6.92% |
| 1998 | +31.09% | +35.64% | -1.22% |
| 2002 | +23.84% | +24.93% | -11.35% |
| 2006 | +2.91% | +9.06% | -2.66% |
| 2010 | +24.76% | +33.46% | -4.40% |
| 2014 | +3.80% | +10.75% | -10.42% |
| 2018 | +24.87% | +47.26% | -16.65% |
| 2022 | +43.06% | +51.69% | -11.06% |
Broader history weakens confidence
Checking across all years asks whether the appeal extends beyond midterms. The 2016–2025 median was 2.99%, versus the selected study's 24.82%; the 2006–2025 record was also mixed, with 65.0% profitable. Those comparisons share two and five study years, respectively, and the longer contains the shorter. They offer limited independent confirmation of a ten-observation pattern.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 24.82% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 50.0% | 2.99% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 65.0% | 3.36% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before November 11
November 11 entry conditions remain unobserved. Inspect this window across histories and its range of outcomes in TradeWave. Below, the price illustration uses this article's selected years and the engine's seasonal overlay for the next 60 weekdays, October 21, 2026–January 12, 2027, separate from the full window. Recorded prices end October 20, 2026; the later span illustrates historical shape, not a forecast or price target.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- GE AEROSPACE ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2026 RESULTS · 2026-10-20
- FORM 10-Q · 2026-10-20
- GE Aerospace to Acquire Consolidated Precision Products (CPP), Expanding Mission-Critical Castings Capacity · 2026-09-08
- TradeWave GE seasonal evidence · 2026-10-21