After 3M raised its earnings outlook on October 20, shareholders face a timing question: how much weight should they give a favorable seasonal record when assessing the shares now?[1][4]
The approaching October 31–November 20, 2026 window spans 21 calendar days. All seven selected midterm-election windows from 1998–2022 finished higher, although broader histories include losses. That makes the period worth examining, without treating seven successes as assurance.[4]
What the raised outlook includes
Third-quarter 2026 GAAP sales reached $6.6 billion, up 1.0% year over year; operating margin reached 23.7%, versus 22.2%. GAAP EPS was $2.63. Adjusted EPS rose to $2.50 from $2.23 in third-quarter 2025, with both periods reflecting updated amortization treatment.[1]
Adjusted sales grew 4.2%, excluding manufactured PFAS products. The accompanying graphic distinguishes same-quarter organic growth: 0.2% under GAAP and 3.3% adjusted. Management attributed its confidence to productivity improvements through structural transformation and a stronger technology pipeline.[1]
Full-year forecasts now call for adjusted EPS of $9.10–$9.15, adjusted total sales growth above 4.5% and adjusted organic growth above 3.5%. They incorporate year-to-date performance, Madison Fire & Rescue and changed amortization treatment. 3M cannot provide meaningful comparable forward GAAP measures without unreasonable effort.[1]
3M’s reported third-quarter organic sales growth
Year-over-year growth, GAAP and adjusted bases
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP organic sales | +0.2% | Q3 2026 year over year | reported |
| Adjusted organic sales | +3.3% | Q3 2026 year over year | reported |
Seven favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 3.22%. These are seven separated midterm years, not consecutive observations. The finding supports attention to this calendar period; it does not establish that elections caused the gains.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +4.30% | +5.24% | -4.98% |
| 2002 | +1.89% | +3.11% | -1.09% |
| 2006 | +3.22% | +3.69% | -0.91% |
| 2010 | +1.73% | +4.63% | -0.81% |
| 2014 | +4.19% | +4.35% | -0.51% |
| 2018 | +5.39% | +10.25% | -0.09% |
| 2022 | +2.65% | +6.46% | -3.71% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A positive ending can conceal losses
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. October 31–November 20, 2022 illustrates the distinction: shares finished up 2.65% but reached 3.71% below the starting price. Its usefulness is showing discomfort inside a winning window. Highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +4.30% | +5.24% | -4.98% |
| 2002 | +1.89% | +3.11% | -1.09% |
| 2006 | +3.22% | +3.69% | -0.91% |
| 2010 | +1.73% | +4.63% | -0.81% |
| 2014 | +4.19% | +4.35% | -0.51% |
| 2018 | +5.39% | +10.25% | -0.09% |
| 2022 | +2.65% | +6.46% | -3.71% |
Broader history softens the signal
Checking across all years tests how broadly the favorable reading holds: success was 90.0% in 2016–2025 versus 80.0% in 2006–2025. The longer history is less convincing. The shorter comparison reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses the selected 2006–2022 midterms and contains the shorter comparison. Agreement offers limited independent confirmation of a seven-observation study.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 3.22% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 2.16% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 2.01% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect before October 31
Recorded prices end October 20, 2026, so October 31 conditions remain unknown. Before entry, inspect TradeWave’s range of outcomes for this same window. The illustration below uses this article’s seven selected midterm years and the engine’s seasonal overlay for the next 60 weekdays, October 21, 2026–January 12, 2027. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- 3M Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Results; Raises Full-Year EPS Guidance · 2026-10-20
- 3M announces collaboration with GSEO to advance Expanded Beam Optical manufacturing and development · 2026-10-19
- 3M and Microsoft announce strategic partnership to advance AI data center infrastructure and enterprise transformation · 2026-07-15
- TradeWave MMM seasonal evidence · 2026-10-21