Can Sherwin-Williams keep growing profits despite rising costs? Its October 27 third-quarter results, scheduled before the market opens, will give investors fresh evidence.[1][3]
That report arrives just after the October 25–December 30 seasonal window opens. The same period gained in all 10 selected midterm-election years from 1986–2022, yet lost money in 2024 and 2025. How much confidence should investors place in that favorable historical timing as earnings approach?[4][3]
July’s results and forecasts
The July 28 filing reported June-quarter 2026 sales of $6,789.3 million versus $6,314.5 million a year earlier. GAAP diluted EPS reached $3.43 versus $3.00.[2]
Management credited investment, new accounts and greater customer spending share for sales growth. Raw material inflation pressured gross margin, prompting pricing responses. Consumer Brands sales also benefited from the Suvinil acquisition, higher North American sales and favorable currency translation.[1]
July forecasts called for mid to high single digit sales growth in Q3 and full-year 2026 against the corresponding 2025 periods. Management nevertheless warned that customer sentiment and leading indicators pointed to continued demand softness in the second half of 2026.[1]
Sherwin-Williams’ reported second-quarter GAAP earnings per share
Diluted net income per share, second quarters of 2025 and 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 3 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 3.43 | Q2 2026 | reported |
A favorable selected record
TradeWave’s selected midterm windows produced an 11.08% median full-window gain. These are ten separate observations spanning 1986–2022, not ten consecutive years or an expected return for 2026.[4]
The filing says most segment sales traditionally occur in Q2 and Q3, making first-half results unrepresentative of the full year. Economic uncertainty can alter that business pattern, which does not establish future stock returns.[2]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +7.25% | +16.47% | -0.49% |
| 1990 | +13.08% | +20.26% | -7.14% |
| 1994 | +3.94% | +3.94% | -7.35% |
| 1998 | +17.26% | +19.52% | -6.98% |
| 2002 | +13.73% | +19.00% | -2.44% |
| 2006 | +9.09% | +11.48% | -1.25% |
| 2010 | +13.28% | +14.53% | -6.72% |
| 2014 | +17.67% | +18.24% | -2.46% |
| 2018 | +7.14% | +18.18% | -2.67% |
| 2022 | +8.05% | +20.94% | -3.78% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What a winning finish can conceal
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 25–December 30, 2022 is useful because its 8.05% ending gain coexisted with a fall 3.78% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown, and they do not establish a future trading range.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +7.25% | +16.47% | -0.49% |
| 1990 | +13.08% | +20.26% | -7.14% |
| 1994 | +3.94% | +3.94% | -7.35% |
| 1998 | +17.26% | +19.52% | -6.98% |
| 2002 | +13.73% | +19.00% | -2.44% |
| 2006 | +9.09% | +11.48% | -1.25% |
| 2010 | +13.28% | +14.53% | -6.72% |
| 2014 | +17.67% | +18.24% | -2.46% |
| 2018 | +7.14% | +18.18% | -2.67% |
| 2022 | +8.05% | +20.94% | -3.78% |
Checking across all years
Checking all years tests whether favorable timing extends beyond midterms: both 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 had 80.0% profitable windows, tempering the perfect selected record. The shorter comparison shares 2018 and 2022 with the study; the longer also shares 2006, 2010 and 2014 and contains the shorter comparison. Reused observations limit independent confirmation, while ten selected windows cannot establish an election effect.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 11.08% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 7.6% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 8.14% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
The outlook and historical illustration
July’s full-year GAAP EPS guidance was $10.92–$11.32 versus 2025’s $10.26; adjusted guidance was $11.80–$12.20 versus $11.43. GAAP guidance included $0.81 per share of Valspar amortization and $0.07 of severance and restructuring charges, excluded from adjusted guidance.[1]
October 27’s 10 a.m. EDT call will address the fourth-quarter and full-year outlook. What changes in management’s assessment of growth and costs?[1][3]
The price chart below has recorded prices through October 20, 2026, before entry conditions are known. Its engine-supplied seasonal overlay uses this article’s selected years over the next 60 weekdays, October 21, 2026–January 12, 2027, a separate horizon from the full study window. That future span illustrates historical shape, not recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target. Inspect this same window’s outcomes across histories in TradeWave.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.