S&P 500 investors have an inflation question to resolve before a historically favorable stretch: will the next report show price pressures easing?[1][4]
October CPI arrives November 10, just before the November 11–July 22 window. All 15 selected midterm windows ended higher, although broader histories were less consistent. Today's economic readings cannot establish conditions at November's entry.[1][4]
Inflation accelerated while growth continued
The October 14 release showed September CPI rising 0.6% seasonally adjusted, versus August's 0.4%, and 3.7% over 12 months. Gasoline accounted for over half the monthly increase. Excluding food and energy, CPI rose 0.3% monthly; annual core inflation increased to 2.6% from 2.4%.[1]
BEA's September 30 release put second-quarter real GDP growth at 2.2% annualized, revised from 1.5% as investment, consumption and government spending estimates rose. Spending, investment and exports supported growth; imports increased. Profits from current production rose $384.0 billion, revised down $16.9 billion. Third-quarter GDP is due October 29.[2]
As dated background, the Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, citing elevated inflation alongside resilient spending, robust investment and elevated uncertainty. That statement establishes neither a later decision nor a cause for today's index moves.[3]
Corporate profit gains in the first two quarters of 2026
BEA changes in profits from current production; reported quarterly estimates
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 63.4 | Q1 2026 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 384 | Q2 2026 | reported |
A favorable midterm seasonal record
TradeWave's 15 selected midterm-election years from 1966–2022 produced a median full-window increase of 14.39%. This is spot-index history: the S&P 500 cannot be bought directly, and these changes do not establish attainable profits on futures, options or exchange-traded products.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | +14.39% | +16.24% | -3.72% |
| 1970 | +16.56% | +24.19% | -3.29% |
| 1974 | +21.69% | +28.52% | -14.66% |
| 1978 | +9.08% | +12.93% | -1.46% |
| 1982 | +19.15% | +21.06% | -6.25% |
| 1986 | +24.85% | +27.32% | -4.68% |
| 1990 | +19.84% | +22.47% | -3.17% |
| 1994 | +20.39% | +21.76% | -4.21% |
| 1998 | +21.41% | +26.71% | -0.48% |
| 2002 | +12.77% | +15.89% | -9.96% |
| 2006 | +11.35% | +12.39% | -1.48% |
| 2010 | +10.83% | +12.94% | -3.34% |
| 2014 | +3.65% | +4.66% | -3.29% |
| 2018 | +9.49% | +10.70% | -13.93% |
| 2022 | +14.07% | +14.66% | -5.72% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A positive finish can conceal a difficult period
The yearly range chart shows each year's same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. November 11, 2018–July 22, 2019 is useful because its 9.49% ending gain coexisted with a low 13.93% below the starting level. Highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | +14.39% | +16.24% | -3.72% |
| 1970 | +16.56% | +24.19% | -3.29% |
| 1974 | +21.69% | +28.52% | -14.66% |
| 1978 | +9.08% | +12.93% | -1.46% |
| 1982 | +19.15% | +21.06% | -6.25% |
| 1986 | +24.85% | +27.32% | -4.68% |
| 1990 | +19.84% | +22.47% | -3.17% |
| 1994 | +20.39% | +21.76% | -4.21% |
| 1998 | +21.41% | +26.71% | -0.48% |
| 2002 | +12.77% | +15.89% | -9.96% |
| 2006 | +11.35% | +12.39% | -1.48% |
| 2010 | +10.83% | +12.94% | -3.34% |
| 2014 | +3.65% | +4.66% | -3.29% |
| 2018 | +9.49% | +10.70% | -13.93% |
| 2022 | +14.07% | +14.66% | -5.72% |
Broader histories temper the perfect record
Checking across all years tests how broadly the finding holds: 2016–2025 had nine positive windows out of ten; 2006–2025 had 17 out of 20. Both remain favorable, but weaken confidence in a perfect outcome. The shorter history reuses midterms 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses the selected 2006–2022 midterms and contains the shorter history. Agreement is not independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 15 selected midterm-election years (1966–2022) | 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 14.39% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 9.51% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 9.04% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Revisit the evidence before November 11
The next inflation report can update the economic question; it cannot validate a seasonal return.[1][4]
Below, recorded index levels end October 20, 2026. TradeWave's seasonal overlay uses this article's same 15 midterm years, rescaled to illustrate historical shape over the next 60 weekdays, October 21–January 12, 2027. Those future dates belong only to the illustration, not recorded prices or a forecast. Its horizon differs from November 11, 2026–July 22, 2027. Inspect that full window's outcomes across histories in TradeWave.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
15 selected midterm-election years (1966–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.