Thermo Fisher’s third-quarter revenue rose 9%, giving investors fresh evidence of growth. As they weigh the shares’ seasonal opportunity, the remaining business question is what management now expects for 2026.[1]
The October 22, 2026–January 10, 2027 window starts today. TradeWave’s 10 selected midterm-election windows from 1986–2022 all finished higher, although both consecutive-year comparisons include losses. How much confidence should investors place in that favorable selected record?[3]
Growth and the missing outlook
The October 21 release covers the quarter ended September 26. Revenue reached $12.14 billion versus $11.12 billion a year earlier, with 6% organic growth.[1]
GAAP diluted EPS rose 9% to $4.64; adjusted EPS rose 15% to $6.68. Organic growth and adjusted EPS are non-GAAP measures. Management credited its growth strategy and PPI Business System.[1]
The microbiology sale to Astorg was completed August 12 for approximately $1.075 billion, including a $50 million seller note. The business generated $645 million of 2025 revenue.[2]
Thermo Fisher third-quarter revenue rose
Reported revenue for comparable third quarters
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 11.12 | Q3 2025 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 12.14 | Q3 2026 | reported |
A favorable selected record
TradeWave supplies the timing perspective: the selected midterm windows had a median full-window long result of 12.78%. These are 10 scattered election years, not a consecutive decade. Their consistency makes this window worth examining, without making stronger earnings a reason to expect the historical return.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +23.04% | +23.73% | -7.37% |
| 1990 | +14.58% | +23.44% | -6.77% |
| 1994 | +3.05% | +4.71% | -9.70% |
| 1998 | +3.60% | +15.47% | -12.95% |
| 2002 | +14.96% | +19.77% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +11.59% | +11.94% | -0.40% |
| 2010 | +13.05% | +14.38% | -0.28% |
| 2014 | +13.02% | +15.33% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +5.87% | +12.46% | -7.66% |
| 2022 | +12.54% | +15.78% | -5.79% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Winning finishes still involved declines
The latest selected midterm illustrates the difference between the finish and the move endured. During October 22, 2022–January 10, 2023, TMO finished up 12.54% but also traded 5.79% below the starting price. The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. Its highs and lows establish neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +23.04% | +23.73% | -7.37% |
| 1990 | +14.58% | +23.44% | -6.77% |
| 1994 | +3.05% | +4.71% | -9.70% |
| 1998 | +3.60% | +15.47% | -12.95% |
| 2002 | +14.96% | +19.77% | +0.00% |
| 2006 | +11.59% | +11.94% | -0.40% |
| 2010 | +13.05% | +14.38% | -0.28% |
| 2014 | +13.02% | +15.33% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +5.87% | +12.46% | -7.66% |
| 2022 | +12.54% | +15.78% | -5.79% |
Broader histories temper confidence
The consecutive histories check whether the favorable reading extends across all years. The 2016–2025 median was 6.39%, below the selected study’s 12.78%; both it and 2006–2025 included losses. The shorter comparison reuses 2018 and 2022, while the longer reuses the study’s 2006–2022 midterms and contains the entire shorter sample. Agreement is therefore not independent confirmation, and 10 selected observations cannot establish an election effect.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 12.78% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 6.39% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 7.57% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect next
The next business step is checking updated guidance: the release deferred it to the October 21 call, now past, but the captured evidence contains neither ranges nor a call account.[1]
Recorded prices end October 21, so they do not establish today’s entry price. Below, TradeWave’s seasonal overlay uses this article’s selected years to illustrate historical shape over the next 60 weekdays, October 22–January 13, separately from the full seasonal window. It is not a forecast or price target. In TradeWave, inspect this same window’s outcomes and ranges across histories.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.