Everest shareholders face a question about the company’s narrower portfolio: what will third-quarter results reveal about underwriting? The Canadian retail insurance sale closed October 1, sharpening attention on its remaining core businesses.[2][3]
As of October 23, 2026, results are five days away and coincide with the October 28 start of the seasonal window running through May 19, 2027. All seven selected midterm windows finished higher, although broader histories include losses. What will the business report as the shares enter this historically favorable period?[4][3]
The reported earnings baseline
Everest’s July 29 release reported Q2 2026 net income of $559 million, or $14.22 per diluted share, versus $680 million, or $16.10 per diluted share, in Q2 2025.[1]
Non-GAAP net operating income also declined, to $585 million from $734 million in the comparable quarter. Core gross written premiums fell on a comparable basis.[1]
Reinsurance premium contraction spanned casualty and property, partly offset by Property Pro-Rata growth. Elevated non-catastrophe weather losses affected Reinsurance Treaty’s attritional ratios. In Global Wholesale & Specialty, growth in Other Specialty, Professional Liability and Accident and Health nearly offset Workers’ Compensation and Specialty Casualty declines. Management emphasized strong treaty renewal execution and specialty expansion.[1]
Everest’s reported second-quarter net income declined
GAAP net income for quarters ended June 30
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 680 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 559 | Q2 2026 | reported |
Seven selected midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected study covers October 28 through May 19 of the following year, using seven midterm-election years from 1998–2022. Its median full-window long result was 11.78%. This small, favorable sample concerns share-price timing; it cannot establish what earnings will deliver.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +5.09% | +23.78% | -8.05% |
| 2002 | +14.23% | +20.40% | -21.24% |
| 2006 | +7.82% | +8.95% | -7.33% |
| 2010 | +8.81% | +13.93% | -2.79% |
| 2014 | +11.78% | +12.34% | -0.40% |
| 2018 | +22.40% | +23.46% | -1.97% |
| 2022 | +18.19% | +23.44% | -4.86% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A winning finish could conceal losses
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. October 28, 2002–May 19, 2003 illustrates the distinction: shares finished up 14.23% but traded 21.24% below the starting price within the window. It shows why a winning finish could still be difficult to endure. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough loss.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +5.09% | +23.78% | -8.05% |
| 2002 | +14.23% | +20.40% | -21.24% |
| 2006 | +7.82% | +8.95% | -7.33% |
| 2010 | +8.81% | +13.93% | -2.79% |
| 2014 | +11.78% | +12.34% | -0.40% |
| 2018 | +22.40% | +23.46% | -1.97% |
| 2022 | +18.19% | +23.44% | -4.86% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests how widely the favorable record holds: 2016–2025 had 70.0% profitable windows, versus 65.0% for 2006–2025. The first reuses selected midterms 2018 and 2022; the second includes selected midterms from 2006–2022. The shorter history also sits within the longer one. Losses temper confidence, and overlapping observations provide no independent confirmation or proof of an election effect.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 11.78% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 10.84% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 65.0% | 6.94% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Earnings first, history for perspective
The price chart below places TradeWave’s seasonal overlay, using this article’s seven selected years, over the actual price chart. Recorded prices end October 22, 2026, before entry. Only the historical illustration extends over the next 60 weekdays, October 23, 2026–January 14, 2027. That shorter horizon illustrates historical shape rather than predicting earnings or a price target.[4]
Results arrive October 28 after the NYSE close; the call follows October 29 at 8 a.m. Eastern. Inspect underwriting progress there, and compare this same window’s outcomes across histories in TradeWave.[3][4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.