Northern Trust investors have growth targets to assess: can the business deliver its fourth-quarter outlook as a historically favorable stretch for NTRS approaches?[2][3]
The October 26–January 17 window finished higher in all ten observations beginning in 2016–2025. Longer history includes losses, however, raising the question of how much confidence that recent consistency deserves before the 2026 window opens.[3]
Profit comparisons need context
The October 21 release reported Q3 net income of $642.9 million and diluted EPS of $3.40, versus Q2’s $792.2 million and $4.23; profit exceeded Q3 2025. Q2 included a $525.4 million Visa gain, securities losses and expense charges. Q3’s $48.7 million pretax gains included a guardianship sale, partly offsetting the sequential decline in other operating income, and Visa participation.[1]
Management credited execution for organic trust-fee growth across all three businesses. Favorable markets and net inflows mainly drove year-over-year client-asset growth; those figures remained preliminary. Higher deposits, favorable deposit mix and lower funding costs drove higher year-over-year fully taxable equivalent net interest income.[1]
The October 21 presentation targets Q4 2026 net interest income growth of 8–9% and revenue growth of 6–7% against Q4 2025. These are forecasts with an unspecified accounting basis. Reported Q4 2025 benchmarks were $641.6 million GAAP net interest income ($654.3 million FTE) and $2,123.1 million GAAP revenue ($2,135.8 million FTE).[2]
Northern Trust’s reported net income across three quarters
Reported net income; USD millions
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 457.6 | Q3 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 792.2 | Q2 2026 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 642.9 | Q3 2026 | reported |
Strong finishes in the selected decade
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record shows a 13.31% median full-window long result. That describes completed historical windows, before costs, rather than an expected gain for October 26, 2026–January 17, 2027.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +23.94% | +28.14% | -0.20% |
| 2017 | +12.38% | +13.59% | -4.52% |
| 2018 | +1.42% | +14.70% | -13.62% |
| 2019 | +7.37% | +8.45% | -3.66% |
| 2020 | +19.30% | +22.36% | -7.33% |
| 2021 | +7.96% | +10.34% | -8.15% |
| 2022 | +22.03% | +22.49% | -0.52% |
| 2023 | +28.90% | +35.08% | -2.34% |
| 2024 | +5.62% | +9.81% | -2.76% |
| 2025 | +14.24% | +18.76% | -3.70% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A winning finish could still hurt
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole year. October 26, 2018–January 17, 2019 is useful because its 1.42% finish concealed a move 13.62% below the starting price. Highs and lows show what investors endured, without establishing their order, peak-to-trough drawdown, a stop or a forecast.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +23.94% | +28.14% | -0.20% |
| 2017 | +12.38% | +13.59% | -4.52% |
| 2018 | +1.42% | +14.70% | -13.62% |
| 2019 | +7.37% | +8.45% | -3.66% |
| 2020 | +19.30% | +22.36% | -7.33% |
| 2021 | +7.96% | +10.34% | -8.15% |
| 2022 | +22.03% | +22.49% | -0.52% |
| 2023 | +28.90% | +35.08% | -2.34% |
| 2024 | +5.62% | +9.81% | -2.76% |
| 2025 | +14.24% | +18.76% | -3.70% |
Looking further back
Checking durability makes the record less convincing: the 2006–2025 median was 7.07%, with four losses, and includes all ten primary observations. The ten selected midterm-election years spanning 1986–2022 had nine winners, preserving the favorable direction. That small sample shares 2018 and 2022 with the primary study, limiting independent confirmation; the differences do not establish an election effect.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 100.0% | 13.31% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 7.07% |
| 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 90.0% | 7.34% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Inspect the opening and historical shape
Recorded prices end October 22, 2026, so opening conditions remain unknown. Below, TradeWave’s seasonal overlay uses this article’s 2016–2025 start years, rescaled alongside prices. Its next 60 weekdays, October 23, 2026–January 14, 2027, illustrate historical shape over a separate horizon from the full window, not future recorded prices or a target. As October 26 approaches, inspect the same window’s range of outcomes across histories in TradeWave.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.